IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/0704.1348.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Large portfolio losses: A dynamic contagion model

Author

Listed:
  • Paolo Dai Pra
  • Wolfgang J. Runggaldier
  • Elena Sartori
  • Marco Tolotti

Abstract

Using particle system methodologies we study the propagation of financial distress in a network of firms facing credit risk. We investigate the phenomenon of a credit crisis and quantify the losses that a bank may suffer in a large credit portfolio. Applying a large deviation principle we compute the limiting distributions of the system and determine the time evolution of the credit quality indicators of the firms, deriving moreover the dynamics of a global financial health indicator. We finally describe a suitable version of the "Central Limit Theorem" useful to study large portfolio losses. Simulation results are provided as well as applications to portfolio loss distribution analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Dai Pra & Wolfgang J. Runggaldier & Elena Sartori & Marco Tolotti, 2007. "Large portfolio losses: A dynamic contagion model," Papers 0704.1348, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2009.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0704.1348
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/0704.1348
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giesecke, Kay & Weber, Stefan, 2006. "Credit contagion and aggregate losses," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 741-767, May.
    2. Horst, Ulrich, 2007. "Stochastic cascades, credit contagion, and large portfolio losses," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 25-54, May.
    3. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf, 2001. "Discrete Choice with Social Interactions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(2), pages 235-260.
    4. Umut Çetin & Robert Jarrow & Philip Protter & Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Modeling Credit Risk With Partial Information," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 23, pages 579-590, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Huyen Pham, 2007. "Some applications and methods of large deviations in finance and insurance," Papers math/0702473, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2007.
    6. Amir Dembo & Jean-Dominique Deuschel & Darrell Duffie, 2004. "Large portfolio losses," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 3-16, January.
    7. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January.
    8. Robert A. Jarrow & Fan Yu, 2008. "Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 20, pages 481-515, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Frey, Rudiger & McNeil, Alexander J., 2002. "VaR and expected shortfall in portfolios of dependent credit risks: Conceptual and practical insights," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1317-1334, July.
    10. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Egloff, Daniel & Leippold, Markus & Vanini, Paolo, 2007. "A simple model of credit contagion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2475-2492, August.
    2. Dai Pra, Paolo & Tolotti, Marco, 2009. "Heterogeneous credit portfolios and the dynamics of the aggregate losses," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(9), pages 2913-2944, September.
    3. Roy Cerqueti & Francesca Pampurini & Annagiulia Pezzola & Anna Grazia Quaranta, 2022. "Dangerous liasons and hot customers for banks," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 65-89, July.
    4. Anand, Kartik & Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit & Brennan, Simon & Willison, Matthew, 2013. "A network model of financial system resilience," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 219-235.
    5. Wozabal, David & Hochreiter, Ronald, 2012. "A coupled Markov chain approach to credit risk modeling," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 403-415.
    6. Giesecke, Kay & Weber, Stefan, 2006. "Credit contagion and aggregate losses," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 741-767, May.
    7. Nystrom, Kaj & Skoglund, Jimmy, 2006. "A credit risk model for large dimensional portfolios with application to economic capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2163-2197, August.
    8. International Association of Deposit Insurers, 2011. "Evaluation of Deposit Insurance Fund Sufficiency on the Basis of Risk Analysis," IADI Research Papers 11-11, International Association of Deposit Insurers.
    9. Maria Stefanova, 2012. "Recovery Risiko in der Kreditportfoliomodellierung," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-8349-4226-5, February.
    10. Edirisinghe, Chanaka & Gupta, Aparna & Roth, Wendy, 2015. "Risk assessment based on the analysis of the impact of contagion flow," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 209-223.
    11. Spiliopoulos, Konstantinos & Sowers, Richard B., 2011. "Recovery rates in investment-grade pools of credit assets: A large deviations analysis," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 121(12), pages 2861-2898.
    12. Jose Giancarlo Gasha & Mr. Andre O Santos & Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Mr. Carlos I. Medeiros & Mr. Marcos R Souto & Christian Capuano, 2009. "Recent Advances in Credit Risk Modeling," IMF Working Papers 2009/162, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Szego, Giorgio, 2005. "Measures of risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 5-19, May.
    14. Maldonado, Diego & Pazmiño, Mariela, 2008. "Nuevas Herramientas para la Administración del Riesgo Crediticio: El caso de una Cartera Crediticia Ecuatoriana [New Management Tool for Credit Risk analysis: An aplication for Financial Institutio," MPRA Paper 17163, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Dec 2008.
    15. Chen, Tingqiang & Wang, Jiepeng & Liu, Haifei & He, Yuanping, 2019. "Contagion model on counterparty credit risk in the CRT market by considering the heterogeneity of counterparties and preferential-random mixing attachment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 520(C), pages 458-480.
    16. Cerqueti, Roy & Pampurini, Francesca & Quaranta, Anna Grazia & Storani, Saverio, 2024. "Risk transmission, systemic fragility of banks’ interacting customers and credit worthiness assessment," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PA).
    17. Stephen Zamore & Kwame Ohene Djan & Ilan Alon & Bersant Hobdari, 2018. "Credit Risk Research: Review and Agenda," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(4), pages 811-835, March.
    18. Ivan Alves, 2005. "Sectoral fragility: factors and dynamics," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 450-80, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Giesecke, Kay & Weber, Stefan, 2004. "Cyclical correlations, credit contagion, and portfolio losses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 3009-3036, December.
    20. Cowan, Adrian M. & Cowan, Charles D., 2004. "Default correlation: An empirical investigation of a subprime lender," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 753-771, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0704.1348. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.