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Modeling Credit Risk with Partial Information

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  • Umut Cetin
  • Robert Jarrow
  • Philip Protter
  • Yildiray Yildirim

Abstract

This paper provides an alternative approach to Duffie and Lando [Econometrica 69 (2001) 633-664] for obtaining a reduced form credit risk model from a structural model. Duffie and Lando obtain a reduced form model by constructing an economy where the market sees the manager's information set plus noise. The noise makes default a surprise to the market. In contrast, we obtain a reduced form model by constructing an economy where the market sees a reduction of the manager's information set. The reduced information makes default a surprise to the market. We provide an explicit formula for the default intensity based on an Azema martingale, and we use excursion theory of Brownian motions to price risky debt.

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Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number math/0407060.

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Date of creation: Jul 2004
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Publication status: Published in Annals of Applied Probability 2004, Vol. 14, No. 3, 1167-1178
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:math/0407060

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  1. Duffie, Darrell & Lando, David, 2001. "Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 633-64, May.
  2. Robert A. Jarrow, 2001. "Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1765-1799, October.
  3. Philip Protter & Michael Dritschel, 1999. "Complete markets with discontinuous security price," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 203-214.
  4. Jones, E Philip & Mason, Scott P & Rosenfeld, Eric, 1984. " Contingent Claims Analysis of Corporate Capital Structures: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 611-25, July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Abel Elizalde, 2006. "Credit Risk Models Iii: Reconciliation Reduced - Structural Models," Working Papers wp2006_0607, CEMFI.
  2. Hisashi Nakamura, 2007. "Strategic Default Jump as Impulse Control in Continuous Time ( Revised in February 2008 )," CARF F-Series CARF-F-115, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  3. Paolo Dai Pra & Wolfgang J. Runggaldier & Elena Sartori & Marco Tolotti, 2007. "Large portfolio losses: A dynamic contagion model," Papers 0704.1348, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2009.
  4. Jeanblanc, Monique & Geman, Hélyette & Coculescu, Délia, 2006. "Valuation of default sensitive claims under imperfect information," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/2191, Paris Dauphine University.
  5. Jose Giancarlo Gasha & Andre Santos & Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Carlos I. Medeiros & Marcos Souto & Christian Capuano, 2009. "Recent Advances in Credit Risk Modeling," IMF Working Papers 09/162, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Delia Coculescu, 2009. "From the decompositions of a stopping time to risk premium decompositions," Papers 0912.4312, arXiv.org, revised May 2010.
  7. Wang, Ashley W. & Zhang, Gaiyan, 2009. "Institutional ownership and credit spreads: An information asymmetry perspective," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 597-612, September.
  8. Younes Kchia & Martin Larsson, 2011. "Credit contagion and risk management with multiple non-ordered defaults," Papers 1104.5272, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2011.
  9. Oblój, Jan, 2007. "An explicit solution to the Skorokhod embedding problem for functionals of excursions of Markov processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 117(4), pages 409-431, April.
  10. Jarrow, Robert & Li, Haitao & Liu, Sheen & Wu, Chunchi, 2010. "Reduced-form valuation of callable corporate bonds: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 227-248, February.
  11. Nystrom, Kaj & Skoglund, Jimmy, 2006. "A credit risk model for large dimensional portfolios with application to economic capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2163-2197, August.
  12. Caroline Hillairet & Ying Jiao, 2010. "Information Asymmetry in Pricing of Credit Derivatives," Working Papers hal-00457456, HAL.
  13. Umut \c{C}etin, 2012. "On absolutely continuous compensators and nonlinear filtering equations in default risk models," Papers 1205.1154, arXiv.org.
  14. Caroline Hillairet & Ying Jiao, 2012. "Credit Risk with asymmetric information on the default threshold," Post-Print hal-00663136, HAL.
  15. Campi, Luciano & Cetin, Umut, 2007. "Insider trading in an equilibrium model with default: a passage from reduced-form to structural modelling," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/4436, Paris Dauphine University.
  16. Kalife, Aymeric, 2004. "Portfolio Insurance Strategies by a Large Player," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/2233, Paris Dauphine University.
  17. Hisashi Nakamura, 2007. "Strategic Default Jump as Impulse Control in Continuous Time," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-532, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  18. Jens Hilscher & Alon Raviv, 2012. "Bank stability and market discipline: The effect of contingent capital on risk taking and default probability," Working Papers 53, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School, revised Jan 2014.
  19. Çetin, Umut, 2012. "On absolutely continuous compensators and nonlinear filtering equations in default risk models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 122(11), pages 3619-3647.
  20. Chava, Sudheer & Jarrow, Robert, 2008. "Modeling loan commitments," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 11-20, March.
  21. Xin Dong & Harry Zheng, 2014. "Intensity Process for a Pure Jump L\'evy Structural Model with Incomplete Information," Papers 1405.3767, arXiv.org.
  22. Zhang, Gaiyan & Zhang, Sanjian, 2013. "Information efficiency of the U.S. credit default swap market: Evidence from earnings surprises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 720-730.

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