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Pricing defaultable bonds: a middle-way approach between structural and reduced-form models

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  • Lara Cathcart
  • Lina El-Jahel

Abstract

In this paper we present a valuation model that combines features of both the structural and reduced-form approaches for modelling default risk. We maintain the cause and effect or 'structural' definition of default and assume that default is triggered when a state variable reaches a default boundary. However, in our model, the state variable is not interpreted as the assets of the firm, but as a latent variable signalling the credit quality of the firm. Default in our model can also occur according to a doubly stochastic hazard rate. The hazard rate is a linear function of the state variable and the interest rate. We use the Cox et al. (A theory of the term structure of interest rates. Econometrica, 1985, 53(2), 385-407) term structure model to preclude the possibility of negative probabilities of default. We also horse race the proposed valuation model against structural and reduced-form default risky bond pricing models and find that term structures of credit spreads generated using the middle-way approach are more in line with empirical observations.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Quantitative Finance.

Volume (Year): 6 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 243-253

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Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:6:y:2006:i:3:p:243-253

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Related research

Keywords: Stochastic term structure; Defaultable bond; Credit spread; Probability of default; Hazard rate;

References

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  1. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-67, May.
  2. Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Fan Yu, 2005. "Default Risk And Diversification: Theory And Empirical Implications," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-26.
  3. Jarrow, Robert A & Lando, David & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1997. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 481-523.
  4. Campbell, John & Taksler, Glen, 2003. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," Scholarly Articles 3153307, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  5. Mella-Barral, Pierre & Perraudin, William, 1997. " Strategic Debt Service," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 531-56, June.
  6. Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
  7. Duffie, Darrell & Lando, David, 2001. "Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 633-64, May.
  8. Hayne E. Leland and Klaus Bjerre Toft., 1995. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-259, University of California at Berkeley.
  9. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
  10. Mascia Bedendo & Lara Cathcart & Lina El-Jahel, 2007. "The Slope Of The Term Structure Of Credit Spreads: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 30(2), pages 237-257.
  11. Geske, Robert, 1977. "The Valuation of Corporate Liabilities as Compound Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 541-552, November.
  12. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  13. Sarig, Oded & Warga, Arthur, 1989. " Some Empirical Estimates of the Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1351-60, December.
  14. Young Ho Eom, 2004. "Structural Models of Corporate Bond Pricing: An Empirical Analysis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 499-544.
  15. Edwin J. Elton, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, 02.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ballestra, Luca Vincenzo & Pacelli, Graziella, 2014. "Valuing risky debt: A new model combining structural information with the reduced-form approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 261-271.
  2. Hyong-Chol O & Dong-Hyok Kim & Jong-Jun Jo & Song-Hun Ri, 2013. "Integrals of Higher Binary Options and Defaultable Bond with Discrete Default Information," Papers 1305.6988, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2013.
  3. Monfort, A. & Renne, J-P., 2011. "Default, liquidity and crises: an econometric framework," Working papers 340, Banque de France.
  4. Gordon Gemmill, 2002. "Testing Merton's Model for Credit Spreads on Zero-Coupon Bonds," Working Papers wp02-08, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  5. Hyong-Chol O & Song-Yon Kim & Dong-Hyok Kim & Chol-Hyok Pak, 2013. "Comprehensive Unified Models of Structural and Reduced Form Models for Defaultable Fixed Income Bonds (Part 1: One factor-model, Part 2:Two factors-model)," Papers 1309.1647, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2013.
  6. Mark Craddock & Eckhard Platen, 2001. "Benchmark Pricing of Credit Derivatives Under a Standard Market Model," Research Paper Series 60, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.

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