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A network model of financial system resilience

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  • Anand, Kartik
  • Gai, Prasanna
  • Kapadia, Sujit
  • Brennan, Simon
  • Willison, Matthew

Abstract

We examine the role of macroeconomic fluctuations, asset market liquidity, and network structure in determining contagion and aggregate losses in a stylized financial system. Systemic instability is explored in a financial network comprising three distinct, but interconnected, sets of agents – domestic banks, overseas banks, and firms. Calibrating the model to advanced country banking sector data, this preliminarily model generates broadly sensible aggregate loss distributions which are bimodal in nature. We demonstrate how systemic crises may occur and analyse how our results are influenced by firesale externalities and the feedback effects from curtailed lending in the macroeconomy. We also illustrate the resilience of our model financial system to stress scenarios with sharply rising corporate default rates and falling asset prices.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.

Volume (Year): 85 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 219-235

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:85:y:2013:i:c:p:219-235

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Keywords: Contagion; Financial crises; Network models; Systemic risk;

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References

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  1. David Aikman & Piergiorgio Alessandri & Bruno Eklund & Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia, & Elizabeth Martin, & Nada Mora & Gabriel Sterne & Matthew Willison, 2011. "Funding Liquidity Risk in a Quantitative Model of Systemic Stability," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 12, pages 371-410 Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia & Nada Mora & Claus Puhr, 2009. "Towards a Framework for Quantifying Systemic Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 47-81, September.
  3. Horst, Ulrich, 2007. "Stochastic cascades, credit contagion, and large portfolio losses," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 25-54, May.
  4. Castiglionesi, F. & Navarro, N., 2007. "Optimal Fragile Financial Networks," Discussion Paper 2007-100, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  5. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
  6. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Using Market Information for Banking System Risk Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
  7. Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
  8. Stefan Weber & Kay Giesecke, 2003. "Credit Contagion and Aggregate Losses," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 246, Society for Computational Economics.
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