IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v254y2016i2p550-564.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

System-focused risk identification and assessment for disaster preparedness: Dynamic threat analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Powell, J.H.
  • Mustafee, N.
  • Chen, A.S.
  • Hammond, M.

Abstract

Current approaches to risk management stress the need for dynamic (i.e. continuous, ongoing) approaches to risk identification as part of a planned resource application aimed at reducing the expected consequences of undesired outcomes for the object of the assessment. We contend that these approaches place insufficient emphasis on the system knowledge available to the assessor, particularly in respect of three factors, namely the dynamic behavior of the system under threat, the role of human agents and the knowledge availability to those agents.

Suggested Citation

  • Powell, J.H. & Mustafee, N. & Chen, A.S. & Hammond, M., 2016. "System-focused risk identification and assessment for disaster preparedness: Dynamic threat analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 254(2), pages 550-564.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:254:y:2016:i:2:p:550-564
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2016.04.037
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221716302740
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2016.04.037?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stuart Coles & Luis Pericchi, 2003. "Anticipating catastrophes through extreme value modelling," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 52(4), pages 405-416, October.
    2. Wang, Wei & Liu, Wenbin & Mingers, John, 2015. "A systemic method for organisational stakeholder identification and analysis using Soft Systems Methodology (SSM)," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(2), pages 562-574.
    3. John H Powell, 2014. "System/scenario duality—a supporting equivalence," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 65(9), pages 1344-1360, September.
    4. Sherali, Hanif D. & Carter, Todd B. & Hobeika, Antoine G., 1991. "A location-allocation model and algorithm for evacuation planning under hurricane/flood conditions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 439-452, December.
    5. Sven Fuchs & Margreth Keiler & Sergey Sokratov & Alexander Shnyparkov, 2013. "Spatiotemporal dynamics: the need for an innovative approach in mountain hazard risk management," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(3), pages 1217-1241, September.
    6. Richard L. Hewitt, 2002. "Siting a Fire Station by Leveraging Soft Constraints and Supporting Science," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 32(4), pages 69-74, August.
    7. W J Gregory & G Midgley, 2000. "Planning for disaster: developing a multi-agency counselling service," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 51(3), pages 278-290, March.
    8. Bell, Colin E. & Allen, David, 1969. "Optimal planning of an emergency ambulance service," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 95-101, August.
    9. G Barbarosoǧlu & Y Arda, 2004. "A two-stage stochastic programming framework for transportation planning in disaster response," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(1), pages 43-53, January.
    10. R Zehra Zaidi & Mark Pelling, 2015. "Institutionally configured risk: Assessing urban resilience and disaster risk reduction to heat wave risk in London," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(7), pages 1218-1233, May.
    11. Altay, Nezih & Green III, Walter G., 2006. "OR/MS research in disaster operations management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(1), pages 475-493, November.
    12. J H Powell & R G Coyle, 2005. "Identifying strategic action in highly politicized contexts using agent-based qualitative system dynamics," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 56(7), pages 787-798, July.
    13. Ackermann, Fran & Howick, Susan & Quigley, John & Walls, Lesley & Houghton, Tom, 2014. "Systemic risk elicitation: Using causal maps to engage stakeholders and build a comprehensive view of risks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 238(1), pages 290-299.
    14. N C Simpson & P G Hancock, 2009. "Fifty years of operational research and emergency response," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(1), pages 126-139, May.
    15. anonymous, 1995. "Economist examines financial derivatives risk," Financial Update, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 8(Jan), pages 1-4.
    16. Howard, M. & Vidgen, R. & Powell, P. & Powell, J., 2007. "Exploring the use of QPID: A collaborative study of B2B in the automotive industry," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 451-464, August.
    17. J S Edwards & M J Hall & D Shaw, 2005. "Proposing a systems vision of knowledge management in emergency care," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 56(2), pages 180-192, February.
    18. Galindo, Gina & Batta, Rajan, 2013. "Review of recent developments in OR/MS research in disaster operations management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 201-211.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Konstantinos Nikolopoulos & Fotios Petropoulos & Vasco Sanchez Rodrigues & Stephen Pettit & Anthony Beresford, 2019. "A risk-mitigation model driven from the level of forecastability of Black Swans: prepare and respond to major Earthquakes through a dynamic Temporal and Spatial Aggregation forecasting framework," Working Papers 19017, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    2. Zhongzhen Yang & Liquan Guo & Zaili Yang, 2019. "Emergency logistics for wildfire suppression based on forecasted disaster evolution," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 283(1), pages 917-937, December.
    3. Wencheng Huang & Yueyang Li & Xingyi Kou & Wenzhe Wang & Yifei Xu, 2021. "Using a FMEA–TIFIAD Approach to Identify the Risk of Railway Dangerous Goods Transportation System," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 63-95, February.
    4. J H Powell & N Mustafee, 2017. "Widening requirements capture with soft methods: an investigation of hybrid M&S studies in health care," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 68(10), pages 1211-1222, October.
    5. Klaus-Dieter Rest & Patrick Hirsch, 2022. "Insights and decision support for home health care services in times of disasters," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 30(1), pages 133-157, March.
    6. Alizadeh, Morteza & Amiri-Aref, Mehdi & Mustafee, Navonil & Matilal, Sumohon, 2019. "A robust stochastic Casualty Collection Points location problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(3), pages 965-983.
    7. Liu, Shan & Wang, Lin & Huang, Wei (Wayne), 2017. "Effects of process and outcome controls on business process outsourcing performance: Moderating roles of vendor and client capability risks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 260(3), pages 1115-1128.
    8. John Hamer Powell & Michael Hammond & Albert Chen & Navonil Mustafee, 2018. "Human Agency in Disaster Planning: A Systems Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(7), pages 1422-1443, July.
    9. Katharina Proswitz & Mamkwe Claudia Edward & Mariele Evers & Felister Mombo & Alexander Mpwaga & Kristian Näschen & Jennifer Sesabo & Britta Höllermann, 2021. "Complex Socio-Ecological Systems: Translating Narratives into Future Land Use and Land Cover Scenarios in the Kilombero Catchment, Tanzania," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-27, June.
    10. Doan, Xuan Vinh & Shaw, Duncan, 2019. "Resource allocation when planning for simultaneous disasters," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 687-709.
    11. Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Petropoulos, Fotios & Rodrigues, Vasco Sanchez & Pettit, Stephen & Beresford, Anthony, 2022. "A disaster response model driven by spatial–temporal forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1214-1220.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. A. Anaya-Arenas & J. Renaud & A. Ruiz, 2014. "Relief distribution networks: a systematic review," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 223(1), pages 53-79, December.
    2. Esposito Amideo, A. & Scaparra, M.P. & Kotiadis, K., 2019. "Optimising shelter location and evacuation routing operations: The critical issues," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(2), pages 279-295.
    3. Lu, Chung-Cheng & Ying, Kuo-Ching & Chen, Hui-Ju, 2016. "Real-time relief distribution in the aftermath of disasters – A rolling horizon approach," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 1-20.
    4. Caunhye, Aakil M. & Nie, Xiaofeng & Pokharel, Shaligram, 2012. "Optimization models in emergency logistics: A literature review," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 4-13.
    5. Yiping Jiang & Yufei Yuan, 2019. "Emergency Logistics in a Large-Scale Disaster Context: Achievements and Challenges," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-23, March.
    6. Dilsu Binnaz Ozkapici & Mustafa Alp Ertem & Haluk Aygüneş, 2016. "Intermodal humanitarian logistics model based on maritime transportation in Istanbul," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(1), pages 345-364, August.
    7. Araya-Córdova, P.J. & Vásquez, Óscar C., 2018. "The disaster emergency unit scheduling problem to control wildfires," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 311-317.
    8. Wilson, Duncan T. & Hawe, Glenn I. & Coates, Graham & Crouch, Roger S., 2013. "A multi-objective combinatorial model of casualty processing in major incident response," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 230(3), pages 643-655.
    9. Melissa Gama & Bruno Filipe Santos & Maria Paola Scaparra, 2016. "A multi-period shelter location-allocation model with evacuation orders for flood disasters," EURO Journal on Computational Optimization, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 4(3), pages 299-323, September.
    10. Sperling, Martina & Schryen, Guido, 2022. "Decision support for disaster relief: Coordinating spontaneous volunteers," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 299(2), pages 690-705.
    11. Altay, Nezih & Green III, Walter G., 2006. "OR/MS research in disaster operations management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(1), pages 475-493, November.
    12. Kınay, Ömer Burak & Yetis Kara, Bahar & Saldanha-da-Gama, Francisco & Correia, Isabel, 2018. "Modeling the shelter site location problem using chance constraints: A case study for Istanbul," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(1), pages 132-145.
    13. Rodríguez-Espíndola, Oscar & Ahmadi, Hossein & Gastélum-Chavira, Diego & Ahumada-Valenzuela, Omar & Chowdhury, Soumyadeb & Dey, Prasanta Kumar & Albores, Pavel, 2023. "Humanitarian logistics optimization models: An investigation of decision-maker involvement and directions to promote implementation," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    14. Tippong, Danuphon & Petrovic, Sanja & Akbari, Vahid, 2022. "A review of applications of operational research in healthcare coordination in disaster management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(1), pages 1-17.
    15. Kovacs, Gyöngyi & Moshtari, Mohammad, 2019. "A roadmap for higher research quality in humanitarian operations: A methodological perspective," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(2), pages 395-408.
    16. Junhu Ruan & Xuping Wang & Yan Shi, 2014. "A Two-Stage Approach for Medical Supplies Intermodal Transportation in Large-Scale Disaster Responses," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-29, October.
    17. Comrie, E.L. & Burns, C. & Coulson, A.B. & Quigley, J. & Quigley, K.F., 2019. "Rationalising the use of Twitter by official organisations during risk events: Operationalising the Social Amplification of Risk Framework through causal loop diagrams," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(2), pages 792-801.
    18. Arslan, Okan & Kumcu, Gül Çulhan & Kara, Bahar Yetiş & Laporte, Gilbert, 2021. "The location and location-routing problem for the refugee camp network design," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 201-220.
    19. Tereza Sedlářová Nehézová & Michal Škoda & Robert Hlavatý & Helena Brožová, 2022. "Fuzzy and robust approach for decision-making in disaster situations," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 30(2), pages 617-645, June.
    20. Farahani, Reza Zanjirani & Lotfi, M.M. & Baghaian, Atefe & Ruiz, Rubén & Rezapour, Shabnam, 2020. "Mass casualty management in disaster scene: A systematic review of OR&MS research in humanitarian operations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(3), pages 787-819.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:254:y:2016:i:2:p:550-564. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.