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Explaining the time-varying effects of oil market shocks on US stock returns

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  • Foroni, Claudia
  • Guérin, Pierre
  • Marcellino, Massimiliano

Abstract

This paper documents time-variation in the relation between oil price and US equity returns based on both reduced-form and structural analyses. Our reduced-form analysis suggests that the sign of the relation between real oil returns and real stock returns has changed over time, and that in the recent period this relation has turned positive since early 2007 (but started increasing since 2005). Based on our structural analysis, we find that oil-specific demand shocks have had positive effects on the US stock market since 2009 as opposed to oil supply shocks, which have no large effects on stock returns. We also show that the time variation in the parameters of the structural VAR is very well explained by the level of the US short-term interest rate and shifts in consumer confidence.

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  • Foroni, Claudia & Guérin, Pierre & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2017. "Explaining the time-varying effects of oil market shocks on US stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 84-88.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:155:y:2017:i:c:p:84-88
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2017.03.017
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    5. Liu, Zhenhua & Shi, Xunpeng & Zhai, Pengxiang & Wu, Shan & Ding, Zhihua & Zhou, Yuqin, 2021. "Tail risk connectedness in the oil-stock nexus: Evidence from a novel quantile spillover approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
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    7. Mushtaq Hussain Khan & Junaid Ahmed & Mazhar Mughal & Imtiaz Hussain Khan, 2023. "Oil price volatility and stock returns: Evidence from three oil‐price wars," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3162-3182, July.
    8. Yousaf, Imran & Beljid, Makram & Chaibi, Anis & Ajlouni, Ahmed AL, 2022. "Do volatility spillover and hedging among GCC stock markets and global factors vary from normal to turbulent periods? Evidence from the global financial crisis and Covid-19 pandemic crisis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    9. Martínez-Cañete, Ana R. & Márquez-de-la-Cruz, Elena & Pérez-Soba, Inés, 2022. "Non-linear cointegration between oil and stock prices: The role of interest rates," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    10. Arampatzidis, Ioannis & Dergiades, Theologos & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2021. "Oil and the U.S. stock market: Implications for low carbon policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    11. Diakonova, Marina & Ghirelli, Corinna & Molina, Luis & Pérez, Javier J., 2023. "The economic impact of conflict-related and policy uncertainty shocks: The case of Russia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 69-90.
    12. Ron Alquist & Reinhard Ellwanger & Jianjian Jin, 2020. "The effect of oil price shocks on asset markets: Evidence from oil inventory news," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1212-1230, August.
    13. Eraslan, Sercan & Menla Ali, Faek, 2018. "Oil price shocks and stock return volatility: New evidence based on volatility impulse response analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 59-62.
    14. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Huang, Shiangtsz & Lin, Tzu-Yu, 2022. "How do oil prices affect emerging market sovereign bond spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    15. Zhenhua Liu & Zhihua Ding & Tao Lv & Jy S. Wu & Wei Qiang, 2019. "Financial factors affecting oil price change and oil-stock interactions: a review and future perspectives," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 95(1), pages 207-225, January.
    16. Bhaskar Bagchi & Biswajit Paul, 2023. "Effects of Crude Oil Price Shocks on Stock Markets and Currency Exchange Rates in the Context of Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Evidence from G7 Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18, January.
    17. Mohammad Sharik Essa & Evangelos Giouvris, 2020. "Oil Price, Oil Price Implied Volatility (OVX) and Illiquidity Premiums in the US: (A)symmetry and the Impact of Macroeconomic Factors," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-40, April.
    18. Huang, Wanling & Mollick, Andre Varella, 2020. "Tight oil, real WTI prices and U.S. stock returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    19. Le, Thai-Ha & Le, Anh Tu & Le, Ha-Chi, 2021. "The historic oil price fluctuation during the Covid-19 pandemic: What are the causes?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    20. Zeina Alsalman, 2021. "Does the source of oil supply shock matter in explaining the behavior of U.S. consumer spending and sentiment?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1491-1518, September.
    21. Brice V. Dupoyet & Corey A. Shank, 2018. "Oil prices implied volatility or direction: Which matters more to financial markets?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 32(3), pages 275-295, August.
    22. Jiang, Yong & Wang, Gang-Jin & Ma, Chaoqun & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2021. "Do credit conditions matter for the impact of oil price shocks on stock returns? Evidence from a structural threshold VAR model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-15.
    23. Eraslan, Sercan & Ali, Faek Menla, 2018. "Oil price shocks and stock return volatility: New evidence based on volatility impulse response analysis," Discussion Papers 38/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock returns; Oil market shocks; Time-varying parameter VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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