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The Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market Bubbles: Some Evidence

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  • Galí, Jordi
  • Gambetti, Luca

Abstract

We estimate the response of stock prices to exogenous monetary policy shocks using a vector-autoregressive model with time-varying parameters. Our evidence points to protracted episodes in which stock prices end up increasing persistently in response to an exogenous tightening of monetary policy, even though they experience a small decline in the short run. That response is clearly at odds with the "conventional" view on the effects of monetary policy on bubbles, as well as with the predictions of bubbleless models. We also argue that it is unlikely that such evidence be accounted for by an endogenous response of the equity premium to the monetary policy shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Galí, Jordi & Gambetti, Luca, 2014. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market Bubbles: Some Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10070
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Leaning against the wind policies; Financial stability; Inflation targeting; Asset price booms;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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