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A cautionary note on computing conditional from unconditional correlations

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  • Kaiser, Jonas
  • Krämer, Walter

Abstract

We show that some care is needed when inferring true unconditional correlations from observed conditional correlations, which is a frequent problem in empirical finance and elsewhere. We give a general formula for the relationship between the two and demonstrate its importance in the context of the bivariate t-distribution.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 111 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 176-179

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:111:y:2011:i:2:p:176-179

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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Keywords: Conditional correlation t-distribution Stock returns;

References

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  1. Kotz,Samuel & Nadarajah,Saralees, 2004. "Multivariate T-Distributions and Their Applications," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521826549.
  2. Campbell, Rachel A.J. & Forbes, Catherine S. & Koedijk, Kees G. & Kofman, Paul, 2008. "Increasing correlations or just fat tails?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 287-309, March.
  3. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
  4. Bautista, Carlos C., 2006. "The exchange rate-interest differential relationship in six East Asian countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 137-142, July.
  5. Brian H. Boyer & Michael S. Gibson & Mico Loretan, 1997. "Pitfalls in tests for changes in correlations," International Finance Discussion Papers 597, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Burkhard Raunig & Johann Scharler, 2007. "Money market uncertainty and retail interest rate fluctuations: A cross-country comparison," Economics working papers 2007-04, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
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