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How much should we trust five-year averaging to purge business cycle effects? A reassessment of the finance-growth and capital accumulation-unemployment nexus

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  • Sturn, Simon
  • Epstein, Gerald

Abstract

Averaging data over five years is the canonical approach to purge business cycle effects in cross-country/time-series studies. This neglects that business cycles have been found to last 7–10 years on average, with substantial heterogeneity within and between countries. We assess if five-year averaging leads to insufficiently purged cyclical effects and biased estimates by replicating studies that, based on five-year averaging, find growth-enhancing effects of finance for a panel of 130 countries, and unemployment-reducing effects of capital accumulation for a panel of 20 OECD countries. To test if five–year averaged data is purged from cyclical effects we add output gap measures as controls, which are highly significant and strongly narrow the effects of the key explaining variables, often resulting in insignificant estimates. Too much finance is robustly found to harm growth. Easily implementable alternatives to five–year averaging are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Sturn, Simon & Epstein, Gerald, 2021. "How much should we trust five-year averaging to purge business cycle effects? A reassessment of the finance-growth and capital accumulation-unemployment nexus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 242-256.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:96:y:2021:i:c:p:242-256
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2020.12.028
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Five-year averaging; Business cycle; Short-run fluctuations; Panel data; Finance; Economic growth; Unemployment; Capital accumulation; Robustness; Replication;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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