IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v77y2019icp21-33.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do shale gas and oil productions move in convergence? An investigation using unit root tests with structural breaks

Author

Listed:
  • Hu, Haiqing
  • Wei, Wei
  • Chang, Chun-Ping

Abstract

This paper investigates the long-run trends of shale gas and shale oil productions by applying univariate and panel Lagrange Multiplier (LM), GARCH-based, and PANICCA unit root tests to discover the mean-reverting behaviors. We employ monthly data from January 2007 to December 2016 of shale gas withdrawals and shale oil productions in the U.S. The empirical results both on specific state/oil well and panel data show that most structural breaks emerge around 2007–2011, during which shale energy was massively produced in the U.S. and the global financial crisis and energy shock occurred. Our results also indicate that most external shocks are transitory and the trends soon converge, and that cross-state/well factors have greater potential as temporary shocks than the state-specific/well-particular components. For robust analysis, we conduct additional LM tests of natural gas and crude oil productions for a comparison with the unconventional shale energy. The unit root test of Narayan and Popp (2010) on shale gas and shale oil productions help us to find more stationary evidence. Overall, we present powerful findings of the mean-reversion property and propose critical implications for authorities and market participants.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu, Haiqing & Wei, Wei & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2019. "Do shale gas and oil productions move in convergence? An investigation using unit root tests with structural breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 21-33.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:77:y:2019:i:c:p:21-33
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.12.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999318313191
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.12.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Smyth, Russell, 2013. "Are fluctuations in energy variables permanent or transitory? A survey of the literature on the integration properties of energy consumption and production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 371-378.
    2. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-589 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2013. "Are fluctuations in US production of renewable energy permanent or transitory?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 483-488.
    4. Chang, Chun-Ping & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2008. "Are per capita carbon dioxide emissions converging among industrialized countries? New time series evidence with structural breaks," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(4), pages 497-515, August.
    5. Simon Reese & Joakim Westerlund, 2016. "Panicca: Panic on Cross‐Section Averages," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 961-981, September.
    6. Saussay, Aurélien, 2018. "Can the US shale revolution be duplicated in continental Europe? An economic analysis of European shale gas resources," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 295-306.
    7. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
    8. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Are oil shocks permanent or temporary? Panel data evidence from crude oil and NGL production in 60 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 919-936, May.
    9. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Vanessa Smith, L. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2013. "Panel unit root tests in the presence of a multifactor error structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 94-115.
    10. Sen, Amit, 2003. "On Unit-Root Tests When the Alternative Is a Trend-Break Stationary Process," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 174-184, January.
    11. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, July.
    12. Amsler, Christine & Lee, Junsoo, 1995. "An LM Test for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Structural Change," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 359-368, February.
    13. Markku Lanne and Matti Liski, 2004. "Trends and Breaks in Per-Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1870-2028," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 41-66.
    14. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3vsrea3gla9r5oaa2cle5jrqfh is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Salisu, Afees A., 2019. "United we stand, divided we fall: A PANICCA test evidence for stock exchanges in OECD," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 343-347.
    17. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Liu, Ruipeng, 2015. "A unit root model for trending time-series energy variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 391-402.
    18. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Stephan Popp, 2010. "A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1425-1438.
    19. Burke, Paul J. & Yang, Hewen, 2016. "The price and income elasticities of natural gas demand: International evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 466-474.
    20. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    21. Paredes, Dusan & Komarek, Timothy & Loveridge, Scott, 2015. "Income and employment effects of shale gas extraction windfalls: Evidence from the Marcellus region," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 112-120.
    22. Hasanov, Mübariz & Telatar, Erdinc, 2011. "A re-examination of stationarity of energy consumption: Evidence from new unit root tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7726-7738.
    23. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2014. "Are shocks to disaggregated energy consumption in Malaysia permanent or temporary? Evidence from LM unit root tests with structural breaks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 319-328.
    24. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Zaman, Khair Uz, 2014. "Are fluctuations in natural gas consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from time series and panel unit root tests," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 183-195.
    25. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Are bilateral real exchange rates stationary? Evidence from Lagrange multiplier unit root tests for India," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 63-70.
    26. Linn, Joshua & Muehlenbachs, Lucija, 2018. "The heterogeneous impacts of low natural gas prices on consumers and the environment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1-28.
    27. Mishra, Vinod & Smyth, Russell, 2014. "Is monthly US natural gas consumption stationary? New evidence from a GARCH unit root test with structural breaks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 258-262.
    28. Bilgili, Faik & Koçak, Emrah & Bulut, Ümit & Sualp, M. Nedim, 2016. "How did the US economy react to shale gas production revolution? An advanced time series approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 963-977.
    29. Friedl, Birgit & Getzner, Michael, 2003. "Determinants of CO2 emissions in a small open economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 133-148, April.
    30. Golpe, Antonio A. & Carmona, Monica & Congregado, Emilio, 2012. "Persistence in natural gas consumption in the US: An unobserved component model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 594-600.
    31. Chen, Fan & Linn, Scott C., 2017. "Investment and operating choice: Oil and natural gas futures prices and drilling activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 54-68.
    32. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2016. "The impact of the North American shale gas revolution on regional natural gas markets: Evidence from the regime-switching model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 167-178.
    33. Apergis, Nicholas & Tsoumas, Chris, 2011. "Integration properties of disaggregated solar, geothermal and biomass energy consumption in the U.S," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5474-5479, September.
    34. Chang, Chun-Ping & Berdiev, Aziz N. & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2013. "Energy exports, globalization and economic growth: The case of South Caucasus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 333-346.
    35. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2010. "Panel Unit Root Tests With Cross-Section Dependence: A Further Investigation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 1088-1114, August.
    36. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Stephan Popp, 2013. "Size and power properties of structural break unit root tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 721-728, February.
    37. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    38. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Popp, Stephan, 2011. "An application of a new seasonal unit root test to inflation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 707-716, October.
    39. Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-287, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Boying & Zheng, Mingbo & Zhao, Xinxin & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2021. "An assessment of the effect of partisan ideology on shale gas production and the implications for environmental regulations," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).
    2. Boying Li & Chun-Ping Chang & Yin Chu & Bo Sui, 2020. "Oil prices and geopolitical risks: What implications are offered via multi-domain investigations?," Energy & Environment, , vol. 31(3), pages 492-516, May.
    3. Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Bello, Mufutau Opeyemi, 2020. "The impact of shale gas development on the U.S economy: Evidence from a quantile autoregressive distributed lag model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    4. Aamir Aijaz Syed & Muhammad Abdul Kamal & Assad Ullah & Simon Grima, 2022. "An Asymmetric Analysis of the Influence That Economic Policy Uncertainty, Institutional Quality, and Corruption Level Have on India’s Digital Banking Services and Banking Stability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-21, March.
    5. Hu, Haiqing & Chen, Di & Sui, Bo & Zhang, Lang & Wang, Yinyin, 2020. "Price volatility spillovers between supply chain and innovation of financial pledges in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 397-413.
    6. Wang, Lu & Wu, Jianhong, 2022. "Estimation of high-dimensional factor models with multiple structural changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    7. Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Lafuente, Carmen, 2020. "An investigation of long range reliance on shale oil and shale gas production in the U.S. market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    8. Feng, Gen-Fu & Wang, Quan-Jing & Chu, Yin & Wen, Jun & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2021. "Does the shale gas boom change the natural gas price-production relationship? Evidence from the U.S. market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    9. Schneider, Nicolas & Strielkowski, Wadim, 2023. "Modelling the unit root properties of electricity data—A general note on time-domain applications," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 618(C).
    10. Li, Zhenghui & Chen, Liming & Dong, Hao, 2021. "What are bitcoin market reactions to its-related events?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-10.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ozcan, Burcu & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2016. "A new approach to energy consumption per capita stationarity: Evidence from OECD countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 332-344.
    2. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Ranjbar, Omid & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2021. "Testing the persistence of shocks on renewable energy consumption: Evidence from a quantile unit-root test with smooth breaks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PB).
    3. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2015. "Applied econometrics and implications for energy economics research," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 351-358.
    4. Feng, Gen-Fu & Wang, Quan-Jing & Chu, Yin & Wen, Jun & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2021. "Does the shale gas boom change the natural gas price-production relationship? Evidence from the U.S. market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    5. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Zaman, Khair Uz, 2014. "Are fluctuations in natural gas consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from time series and panel unit root tests," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 183-195.
    6. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-589 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2014. "Will initiatives to promote hydroelectricity consumption be effective? Evidence from univariate and panel LM unit root tests with structural breaks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 102-115.
    8. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2014. "Are shocks to disaggregated energy consumption in Malaysia permanent or temporary? Evidence from LM unit root tests with structural breaks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 319-328.
    9. Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Wahab, Bashir A. & Adeboye, Olusegun S., 2020. "Stationarity of prices of precious and industrial metals using recent unit root methods: Implications for markets’ efficiency," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    10. Yifei Cai & Cosimo Magazzino, 2019. "Are shocks to natural gas consumption transitory or permanent? A more powerful panel unit root test on the G7 countries," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(2), pages 111-120, May.
    11. Mishra, Vinod & Smyth, Russell, 2014. "Is monthly US natural gas consumption stationary? New evidence from a GARCH unit root test with structural breaks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 258-262.
    12. Gozgor, Giray, 2016. "Are shocks to renewable energy consumption permanent or transitory? An empirical investigation for Brazil, China, and India," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 913-919.
    13. Cai, Yifei & Menegaki, Angeliki N., 2019. "Fourier quantile unit root test for the integrational properties of clean energy consumption in emerging economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 324-334.
    14. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2013. "Are fluctuations in US production of renewable energy permanent or transitory?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 483-488.
    15. Yaya OlaOluwa S., 2018. "Another Look At The Stationarity Of Inflation Rates In Oecd Countries: Application Of Structural Break-Garch-Based Unit Root Tests," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 477-493, September.
    16. Smyth, Russell, 2013. "Are fluctuations in energy variables permanent or transitory? A survey of the literature on the integration properties of energy consumption and production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 371-378.
    17. Schneider, Nicolas & Strielkowski, Wadim, 2023. "Modelling the unit root properties of electricity data—A general note on time-domain applications," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 618(C).
    18. Wang, Yuan & Li, Li & Kubota, Jumpei & Zhu, Xiaodong & Lu, Genfa, 2016. "Are fluctuations in Japan’s consumption of non-fossil energy permanent or transitory?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 187-196.
    19. Meng, Ming & Payne, James E. & Lee, Junsoo, 2013. "Convergence in per capita energy use among OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 536-545.
    20. Paresh Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2014. "Applied Econometrics and a Decade of Energy Economics Research," Monash Economics Working Papers 21-14, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    21. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2016. "Renewable-to-total electricity consumption ratio: Estimating the permanent or transitory fluctuations based on flexible Fourier stationarity and unit root tests," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1409-1427.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shale gas; Shale oil; Natural gas; Structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K32 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Energy, Environmental, Health, and Safety Law
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:77:y:2019:i:c:p:21-33. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.