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Monetary policy credibility and exchange rate pass-through: Some evidence from emerging countries

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  • Aleem, Abdul
  • Lahiani, Amine

Abstract

Considering external constraints on monetary policy in emerging countries, we propose a semi-structural vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables (VARX) to examine the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices. We demonstrate that a lower exchange rate pass-through is associated with a credible monetary policy aiming at controlling inflation. The empirical results suggest that the exchange rate pass-through is higher in Latin American countries than in East Asian countries. The exchange rate pass-through has declined after the adoption of an inflation targeting monetary policy.

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  • Aleem, Abdul & Lahiani, Amine, 2014. "Monetary policy credibility and exchange rate pass-through: Some evidence from emerging countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 21-29.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:43:y:2014:i:c:p:21-29
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.06.020
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    Cited by:

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    3. Ken Miyajima, 2020. "Exchange rate volatility and pass‐through to inflation in South Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 404-418, September.
    4. Mehmet Balcilar & David Roubaud & Ojonugwa Usman & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Testing the asymmetric effects of exchange rate pass‐through in BRICS countries: Does the state of the economy matter?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 188-233, January.
    5. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Phillips Curve for the Asian Economies: A Nonlinear Perspective," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(12), pages 3508-3537, September.
    6. Eliphas Ndou, 2022. "The exchange rate passthrough to consumer price inflation in South Africa: has the inflation target band induced a structural change in the size of passthrough?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(6), pages 1-32, June.
    7. Zou, Zongsen & Zhang, Yu & Wang, Meng & Wang, Xiuling, 2022. "Do export quality and destination income matter for exchange rate pass-through? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    8. Martina Jašová & Richhild Moessner & Elöd Takáts, 2019. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(3), pages 27-58, September.
    9. Mehmet BALCILAR & Ojonugwa USMAN & Muhammad Sani MUSA, 2020. "The Long-Run and Short-Run Exchange Rate Pass-Through during the Period of Economic Reforms in Nigeria: Is it Complete or Incomplete?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 151-172, March.
    10. Anderl, Christina & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria, 2023. "Nonlinearities in the exchange rate pass-through: The role of inflation expectations," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 86-101.
    11. Mihály Hajnal & György Molnár & Judit Várhegyi, 2015. "Exchange rate pass - through after the crisis: the Hungarian experience," MNB Occasional Papers 2015/121, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    12. Yu Hsing, 2020. "A Simultaneous-Equation Model of Estimating the Response of the Consumer Price to Exchange Rate Movements in Thailand," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(1), pages 284-293, March.
    13. Siew-Voon Soon & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2017. "Exchange Rate Pass-through (ERPT) into Domestic Prices: Evidence from a Nonlinear Perspective," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 1160-1167.
    14. Gayaker, Savas & Ağaslan, Erkan & Alkan, Buket & Çiçek, Serkan, 2021. "The deterioration in credibility, destabilization of exchange rate and the rise in exchange rate pass-through in Turkey," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 571-587.
    15. Sangaré, Ibrahima, 2016. "External shocks and exchange rate regimes in Southeast Asia: A DSGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 365-382.
    16. Bao-We-Wal BAMBE, 2022. "Inflation Targeting and Private Domestic Investment in Developing Countries," Working Papers REM 2022/0237, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    17. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2017. "Effect of credibility and exchange rate pass-through on inflation: An assessment for developing countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 196-244.
    18. Alain N. Kabundi & Mr. Montfort Mlachila, 2018. "Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in South Africa," IMF Working Papers 2018/173, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Bossone, Biagio, 2019. "The portfolio theory of inflation (and policy effectiveness)," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-29, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. Mehmet Balcilar & David Roubaud & Ojonugwa Usman & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Testing the Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate and Oil Price Pass-Through in BRICS Countries: Does the state of the economy matter?," Working Papers 15-49, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    21. Harold Glenn A. Valera & Mark J. Holmes & Gazi M. Hassan, 2018. "Is inflation targeting credible in Asia? A panel GARCH approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 523-546, March.
    22. Kwon, Janghan & Shin, Woongjae, 2023. "Nonlinear exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy credibility: Evidence from Korea," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    23. Mehmet Balcilar & Ojonugwa Usman & Esther Abdul Agbede, 2019. "Revisiting the Exchange Rate Pass‐Through to Inflation in Africa’s Two Largest Economies: Nigeria and South Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 31(2), pages 245-257, June.
    24. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Markov-switching analysis of exchange rate pass-through: Perspective from Asian countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 245-257.
    25. Bossone, Biagio, 2019. "The portfolio theory of inflation and policy (in)effectiveness," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-25.

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