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Is low inflation really causing the decline in exchange rate pass-through?

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  • Miguel A. León-Ledesma

    ()

  • Reginaldo P. Nogueira Júnior

    ()

Abstract

Recent literature has argued that exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into domestic inflation has been declining in many countries following a dramatic change in inflation environment during the 1990s. Available empirical results face two central challenges: (i) the evidence on declining ERPT is mostlybased on sample-splitting approaches and hence subject to a degree of arbitrariness; and (ii) the link between a lower ERPT and inflation environment is usually based on simple correlation analysis and hence silent about temporal causality. We address these issues by making use of a state-space model that allows ERPT to be time-varying and dependent on the inflation environment. We estimate the model for 12 developed and emerging economies and test whether inflation contains significant information about the future evolution of the ERPT. The results reinforce the view of a smooth decline in the impact of exchange rates on domestic inflation, but do not support the hypothesis that lower inflation precedes this declining ERPT.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Kent in its series Studies in Economics with number 1002.

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Date of creation: Apr 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:1002

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Postal: Department of Economics, University of Kent at Canterbury, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP
Phone: +44 (0)1227 764000
Fax: +44 (0)1227 827850
Web page: http://www.ukc.ac.uk/economics/

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Keywords: Exchange Rate Pass-Through; Inflation; State-space Models; Causality Tests.;

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