IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwedp/201929.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The portfolio theory of inflation (and policy effectiveness)

Author

Listed:
  • Bossone, Biagio

Abstract

The Portfolio Theory of Inflation (PIT) proposed in this study investigates the role of global financial markets in determining the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy in open and fully financial integrated economies. The PIT adopts a modified version of the portfolio balance approach to exchange rate determination and incorporates intertemporal optimal choices from global investors. These investors allocate resources across national economies based on local investment opportunities and policy credibility: when a country's credibility is low, they hold its economy to a tighter intertemporal budget constraint and the issuance of what they deem as "excess" public sector liabilities causes the country's currency to depreciate and inflation to rise due to a large exchange rate pass-through, with limited or no impact on output. On the other hand, high credibility creates space for effective and noninflationary macro policies but, if such space is abused, credibility gets dissipated and higher inflation reflects such dissipation.

Suggested Citation

  • Bossone, Biagio, 2019. "The portfolio theory of inflation (and policy effectiveness)," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-29, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201929
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2019-29
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/195096/1/1663226156.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antonia Lopez-Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2016. "Exchange rate pass-through in emerging countries: Do the inflation environment, monetary policy regime and institutional quality matter?," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-18, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Pierpaolo Benigno & Ester Faia, 2016. "Globalization, Pass-Through, and Inflation Dynamics," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 263-306, December.
    3. Buiter, Willem, 2017. "The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level - Once More," CEPR Discussion Papers 11941, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited," NBER Working Papers 12163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    6. Jan Bartholdy & Kate Brown, 2004. "Testing for Multiple Types of Marginal Investor in Ex-Day Pricing," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 8(3-4), pages 173-209, september.
    7. Buiter, Willem H., 2014. "The simple analytics of helicopter money: Why it works - always," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-51.
    8. Martina Jašová & Richhild Moessner & Elöd Takáts, 2019. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(3), pages 27-58, September.
    9. Laurence Savoie-Chabot & Mikael Khan, 2015. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices: Theory and Recent Evidence," Discussion Papers 15-9, Bank of Canada.
    10. Alain N. Kabundi & Mr. Montfort Mlachila, 2018. "Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in South Africa," IMF Working Papers 2018/173, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Zelealem Yiheyis & Jacob Musila, 2018. "The dynamics of inflation, exchange rates and the trade balance in a small economy," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 17(2), pages 246-264, June.
    12. Olivier Blanchard, 2016. "The Phillips Curve: Back to the '60s?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 31-34, May.
    13. Buiter, Willem H. & Sibert, Anne C., 2018. "The fallacy of the fiscal theory of the price level: One last time," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-56.
    14. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    15. Diego Winkelried, 2014. "Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting in Peru," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1181-1196, June.
    16. William H. Branson, 1985. "The Dynamic Interaction of Exchange Rates and Trade Flows," NBER Working Papers 1780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Trautwein, Hans-Michael, 2017. "Some International Aspects Of Business Cycles: Neisser, Haberler, And Modern Open Economy Macroeconomics," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(1), pages 47-67, March.
    18. Aleem, Abdul & Lahiani, Amine, 2014. "Monetary policy credibility and exchange rate pass-through: Some evidence from emerging countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 21-29.
    19. Peijie Wang, 2009. "The Portfolio Balance Approach to Exchange Rate Determination," Springer Books, in: The Economics of Foreign Exchange and Global Finance, chapter 10, pages 1-25, Springer.
    20. John H. Cochrane, 2017. "Michelson-Morley, Fisher, and Occam: The Radical Implications of Stable Quiet Inflation at the Zero Bound," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, pages 113-226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Takhtamanova, Yelena F., 2010. "Understanding changes in exchange rate pass-through," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1118-1130, December.
    22. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2017. "Effect of credibility and exchange rate pass-through on inflation: An assessment for developing countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 196-244.
    23. Peijie Wang, 2009. "The Economics of Foreign Exchange and Global Finance," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-00100-0, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vukovic, Darko B. & Maiti, Moinak & Frömmel, Michael, 2022. "Inflation and portfolio selection," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    2. Biagio Bossone, 2021. "Exercising Economic Sovereignty in Today's Global Financial World: The Lessons from John Maynard Keynes," Working Papers PKWP2120, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    3. Biagio Bossone, 2020. "Why MMT can’t work: A Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers PKWP2020, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    4. Biagio Bossone, 2021. "Why MMT can’t work," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 157-181, February.
    5. Biagio Bossone, 2021. "Global Capital, the Exchange Rate, and Policy (In)Effectiveness," Working Papers PKWP2113, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    6. Bossone, Biagio & Cuccia, Andrea, 2020. "The portfolio theory of inflation and policy (in)effectiveness revisited: Corroborating evidence," Economics Discussion Papers 2020-2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bossone, Biagio, 2019. "The portfolio theory of inflation and policy (in)effectiveness," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-25.
    2. Eliphas Ndou, 2022. "The exchange rate passthrough to consumer price inflation in South Africa: has the inflation target band induced a structural change in the size of passthrough?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(6), pages 1-32, June.
    3. Gayaker, Savas & Ağaslan, Erkan & Alkan, Buket & Çiçek, Serkan, 2021. "The deterioration in credibility, destabilization of exchange rate and the rise in exchange rate pass-through in Turkey," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 571-587.
    4. Anderl, Christina & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria, 2023. "Nonlinearities in the exchange rate pass-through: The role of inflation expectations," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 86-101.
    5. Biagio Bossone, 2022. "A Modigliani-Miller Theorem for the Public Finances of Globalized Economies: Theory, Policy Implications, and Keynesian Reflections," Working Papers PKWP2202, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    6. Bossone Biagio, 2022. "The Portfolio Theory of Inflation and Policy (in)Effectiveness: Exploring it Further and Righting the Wrongs," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 257-275, January.
    7. Martina Jašová & Richhild Moessner & Elöd Takáts, 2019. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(3), pages 27-58, September.
    8. Stella Mnoyan, 2019. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in Armenia," Working Papers 13, Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, revised Dec 2019.
    9. Buiter, Willem H. & Sibert, Anne C., 2018. "The fallacy of the fiscal theory of the price level: One last time," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-56.
    10. Nguyen Van Phuc & Vo Hong Duc, 2021. "Macroeconomics Determinants of Exchange Rate Pass-Through: New Evidence from the Asia-Pacific Region," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 5-20, January.
    11. Roberto Calero & Gabriel Rodríguez & Rodrigo Salcedo Cisneros, 2022. "Evolution of the Exchange Rate Pass-Throught into Prices in Peru: An Empirical Application Using TVP-VAR-SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2022-510, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    12. Tunç, Cengiz, 2017. "A Survey on Exchange Rate Pass through in Emerging Markets," Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, BETA Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 205-233, July-Sept.
    13. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 802, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Shioji, Etsuro, 2006. "Invoicing currency and the optimal basket peg for East Asia: Analysis using a new open economy macroeconomic model," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 569-589, December.
    15. Dongwon Lee & Yu-chin Chen, 2014. "What Makes a Commodity Currency?," Working Papers 201420, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    16. Philippe Andrade & Catherine Bruneau, 2002. "Excess returns, portfolio choices and exchange rate dynamics. The yen/dollar case, 1980–1998," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(3), pages 233-256, July.
    17. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February.
    18. Lilia Cavallari, 2001. "Current Account and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 30(1), pages 27-51, February.
    19. Winkelried, Diego, 2012. "Traspaso del tipo de cambio y metas de inflación en el Perú," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 23, pages 9-24.
    20. David Arseneau, 2012. "Expectation traps in a new Keynesian open economy model," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 49(1), pages 81-112, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credibility; exchange rate; financial integration; global investor; interest rate; intertemporal budget constraint; money; bonds and assets; pass-through;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201929. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.