Hysteresis vs. natural rate of US unemployment
Abstract
This paper investigates the stochastic nature of the unemployment rate allowing for cross-section dependence from a panel of US state-level data. We first employ the PANIC method to identify the common and idiosyncratic components. Powerful recursive mean adjustment (RMA) methods are used to test for unit roots. We find significant evidence of a nonstationary common component when the data from the most recent recession are included. Even when stationarity is empirically supported, the bias-corrected half-life of the common component appears very long, casting doubt on the usefulness of the natural rate hypothesis.Download Info
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Bibliographic Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.
Volume (Year): 29 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 428-434
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411
Related research
Keywords: Unemployment rate; Natural rate hypothesis; Hysteresis; PANIC; RMA; Cross-section dependence;Other versions of this item:
- Ka Ming Cheng & Nazif Durmaz & Hyeongwoo Kim & Michael Stern, 2011. "Hysteresis vs. Natural Rate of US Unemployment," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2011-01, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
- J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
References
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Marcel Aloy & Gilles Dufrenot & Charles Lai Tong & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2012.
"A Smooth Transition Long-Memory Model,"
Working Papers
halshs-00793680, HAL.
- Marcel Aloy & Gilles Dufrénot & Charles Lai Tong & Anne Péguin-Feissolle, 2012. "A Smooth Transition Long-Memory Model," AMSE Working Papers 1240, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised Dec 2012.
- Donald Freeman, .
"On (not) Closing the Gaps: The Evolution of National and Regional Unemployment Rates by Race and Ethnicity,"
Working Papers
1101, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
- Donald Freeman, 2012. "On (Not) Closing the Gaps: The Evolution of National and Regional Unemployment Rates by Race and Ethnicity," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 267-284, June.
- Partridge, Mark D. & Rickman, Dan S. & Olfert, M. Rose & Tan, Ying, 2012. "When spatial equilibrium fails: is place-based policy second best?," MPRA Paper 40270, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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