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Economic and social impacts of conflict: A cross-country analysis

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  • Le, Thai-Ha
  • Bui, Manh-Tien
  • Uddin, Gazi Salah

Abstract

It is important to understand how conflicts within or between countries impact national economic and social development pathways, requiring policymakers to design effective mechanisms to counter the regressive effects of conflict. We explored the relationships between conflict and different types of development outcomes: economic growth, life expectancy, and educational attainment. We applied a dynamic fixed effects estimator to an autoregressive distributed lag model using 1996–2019 panel data for 109 countries. This method enabled us to identify the different short- and long-term effects of conflict on development by mitigating the endogenous effects of the variables. Subsample analyses according to the income levels of countries produced interesting results: the higher a country's income level, the less significant the negative effects of conflict on its development.

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  • Le, Thai-Ha & Bui, Manh-Tien & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2022. "Economic and social impacts of conflict: A cross-country analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:115:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322002267
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105980
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conflict; Economic growth; Life expectancy; Education; Global panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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