IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecanpo/v39y2009i1p25-46.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fiscal Stimulus Packages and Uncertainty in Times of Crisis. Economic Policy for Open Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Ansgar Belke

    (University of Duisburg-Essen and IZA Bonn, Department of Economics, 45117 Essen, Germany)

Abstract

Policymakers in the EU member states and around the world, as for instance in Australia, are currently shaping rescue packages to prevent the financial crisis hitting their economies with unmitigated force. Each government is responding to the emerging problems with a country-specific set of measures. Given the global nature of the crisis, would coordinated action at the European level not be a better approach? Was the German government – much-criticized for its initial reluctance to adopt massive fiscal stimulation measures – right after all to exploit the option value of waiting in a situation of high uncertainty? The answer to the second question is a qualified “yes”. However, the answer to the first one is more complex and crucially depends on how reasonable it appears to model the impact of the economic crisis as an exogenous demand shock which has hit the euro area countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ansgar Belke, 2009. "Fiscal Stimulus Packages and Uncertainty in Times of Crisis. Economic Policy for Open Economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 25-46, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v39:y:2009:i:1:p:25-46
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0313592609500537
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1994. "What Ends Recessions?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 13-80, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Otmar Issing, 2002. "Monetary Policy In A World of Uncertainty," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 92, pages 165-179.
    3. Bent E. S�rensen & Oved Yosha, 1998. "International Risk Sharing and European Monetary Unification," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 327, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2009. "Is a unified macroeconomic policy necessarily better for a common currency area?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 98-101, March.
    5. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    6. Sorensen, Bent E. & Yosha, Oved, 1998. "International risk sharing and European monetary unification," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 211-238, August.
    7. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    8. Giancarlo Gandolfo, 2016. "International Finance and Open-Economy Macroeconomics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 2, number 978-3-662-49862-0, August.
    9. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1976. "The Phillips curve," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, January.
    10. Günter Coenen & Roland Straub, 2005. "Does Government Spending Crowd in Private Consumption? Theory and Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 435-470, December.
    11. Auerbach, Alan J. & Hassett, Kevin, 2007. "Optimal long-run fiscal policy: Constraints, preferences and the resolution of uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1451-1472, May.
    12. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    13. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-587, May.
    14. Michael W.M. Roos, 2007. "Die makroökonomischen Wirkungen diskretionärer Fiskalpolitik in Deutschland – Was wissen wir empirisch?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(4), pages 293-308, November.
    15. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    16. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke, 2005. "Real Options Effects on Employment: Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty Matter for Aggregation?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 185-203, May.
    17. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2001. "Real Impacts of Intra-European Exchange Rate Variability: A Case for EMU?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 231-264, July.
    18. Tommaso Monacelli & Roberto Perotti, 2008. "Fiscal Policy, Wealth Effects, and Markups," NBER Working Papers 14584, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Ansgar Belke & Walter Orth & Ralph Setzer, 2008. "Sowing the seeds for the subprime crisis: does global liquidity matter for housing and other asset prices?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 403-424, December.
    20. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "What happens during recessions, crunches and busts? [Business cycles for G-7 and European countries]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24(60), pages 653-700.
    21. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2009. "On the benefits of fiscal policy coordination in a currency union: a note," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 45-49, February.
    22. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2014. "Discretionary fiscal policy and economic activity in Greece," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 687-712, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anubha Dhasmana, 2021. "Employment growth in the face of exchange rate uncertainty: The role of trade and foreign equity finance," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(1), pages 79-117, July.
    2. Fillat, José L. & Garetto, Stefania & Oldenski, Lindsay, 2015. "Diversification, cost structure, and the risk premium of multinational corporations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 37-54.
    3. Furlanetto, Francesco, 2011. "Fiscal stimulus and the role of wage rigidity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 512-527, April.
    4. Belke, Ansgar & Göcke, Matthias, 2019. "Interest rate hysteresis in macroeconomic investment under uncertainty," Ruhr Economic Papers 801, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    5. Belke, Ansgar, 2000. "Partisan Political Business Cycles in the German Labour Market? Empirical Tests in the Light of the Lucas-Critique," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(3-4), pages 225-283, September.
    6. Thierry Betti, 2014. "Assessing The Effects of Public Expenditure Shocks on the Labor Market in the Euro-Area," Working Papers of BETA 2014-21, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    7. Sarah Zubairy, 2014. "On Fiscal Multipliers: Estimates From A Medium Scale Dsge Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(1), pages 169-195, February.
    8. Göcke, Matthias, 2012. "Play-hysteresis in supply as part of a market model," Discussion Papers 61, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU).
    9. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Laura Werner, 2014. "Hysteresis Effects in Economics – Different Methods for Describing Economic Path-dependence," Ruhr Economic Papers 0468, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Matthias Goecke, 2019. "Economic Hysteresis with Multiple Inputs - A Simplified Treatment," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 17(1-B), pages 98-113.
    11. Joao L. M. Amador, 2000. "Fiscal federalism in continuous time stochastic economies," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp383, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    12. Maclennan, Duncan & Muellbauer, John & Stephens, Mark, 1998. "Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 14(3), pages 54-80, Autumn.
    13. Mark Hallerberg & Lúcio Vinhas de Souza & William Roberts Clark, 2002. "Political Business Cycles in EU Accession Countries," European Union Politics, , vol. 3(2), pages 231-250, June.
    14. Belke, Ansgar & Frenzel Baudisch, Coletta & Göcke, Matthias, 2020. "Interest rate bands of inaction and play-hysteresis in domestic investment – Evidence for the Euro Area," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 19-39.
    15. Anna Kormilitsina & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Propagation Mechanisms for Government Spending Shocks: A Bayesian Comparison," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1571-1616, October.
    16. Bruno Frey & Alois Stutzer, 2010. "Happiness and public choice," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 557-573, September.
    17. Sorensen, Bent E. & Wu, Lisa & Yosha, Oved, 2001. "Output fluctuations and fiscal policy: U.S. state and local governments 1978-1994," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1271-1310.
    18. Roccazzella, Francesco, 2019. "Credit market frictions and rational agents' myopia: Modeling financial frictions and shock to expectations in a DSGE setting estimated on Slovenian data," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2019004, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    19. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2014. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Regime-Dependent? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 139-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    20. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2009. "Is a unified macroeconomic policy necessarily better for a common currency area?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 98-101, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    policy co-ordination; fiscal multiplier; fiscal stimulus package; liquidity constraint; option value of waiting; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v39:y:2009:i:1:p:25-46. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/economic-analysis-and-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.