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Real Impacts of Intra-European Exchange Rate Variability: A Case for EMU?

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Author Info

  • Ansgar Belke

    ()

  • Daniel Gros

Abstract

Intra-European exchange rate variability has significant economic costs. VAR causality tests show that higher short-run variability of exchange rates against other EU currencies was associated with higher unemployment, less employment, and lower investment for most EU member countries. Robustness tests show that this result holds up in the presence of both policy instruments that might have had an impact on exchange rate variability and cyclical variables that might have influenced labor demand. A model that incorporates the “option value of waiting†suggests that even short-term spikes in volatility exert a strong impact on investment and labor markets. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1011112105352
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 12 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 231-264

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:12:y:2001:i:3:p:231-264

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

Related research

Keywords: European Monetary Union; exchange rate variability; employment hysteresis; investment; option value; uncertainty;

References

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  1. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August.
  2. Darby, Julia, et al, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C55-67, March.
  3. Frankel, J-A & Rose, A-K, 1996. "Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency," Papers 611, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  4. De Grauwe, Paul, 1987. "International trade and economic growth in the european monetary system," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 389-398.
  5. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," NBER Working Papers 3949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "After the Deluge: Do Fixed Exchange Rates Allow Inter-temporal Volatility Tradeoffs?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 47-54, January.
  7. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-48, September.
  8. Claudia Stirböck & Herbert Buscher, 2000. "Exchange rate volatility effects on labour markets," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 9-22, January.
  9. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Steven B. Kamin & Marc Klau, 1997. "Some multi-country evidence on the effects of real exchange rates on output," BIS Working Papers 48, Bank for International Settlements.
  11. Andrew K. Rose, 1994. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Monetary Policy, and Capital Mobility: Empirical Evidence on the Holy Trinity," NBER Working Papers 4630, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Belke, A. & Gros, D., 1998. "Evidence on the Costs of Intra-European Exchange Rate Variability," Discussion Paper 1998-14, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  13. Andersen, Torben M. & Sorensen, Jan Rose, 1988. "Exchange rate variability and wage formation in open economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 263-268.
  14. Dixit, A., 1988. "Entry And Exit Decisions Under Uncertainty," Papers 91, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
  15. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy P. Marion, 1996. "Volatility and the Investment Response," NBER Working Papers 5841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Simon Burgess & Michael M. Knetter, 1996. "An International Comparison of Employment Adjustment to Exchange Rate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Bayoumi, Tamim & Prasad, Eswar, 1995. "Currency Unions, Economic Fluctuations and Adjustment: Some Empirical Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1172, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Melitz, Jacques, 1995. "The current impasse in research on optimum currency areas," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 492-500, April.
  19. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ansgar Belke, 2013. "Impact of a Low Interest Rate Environment - Global Liquidity Spillovers and the Search-for-yield," Ruhr Economic Papers 0429, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  2. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2002. "Monetary Integration in the Southern Cone: Mercosur is not like the EU?," Working Papers 72, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  3. Ansgar Belke & Bernhard Herz & Lukas Vogel, 2006. "Beyond Trade – Is Reform Effort Affected by the Exchange Rate Regime? A Panel Analysis for the World versus OECD Countries," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 107, pages 29-58.
  4. Ansgar Belke, 2002. "EU Enlargement, Exchange Rate Variability and Labor Market Performance," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 213/2002, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  5. Feldmann, Horst, 2011. "The unemployment effect of exchange rate volatility in industrial countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 268-271, June.
  6. Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2003. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment Growth: Empirical Evidence from the CEE Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 1056, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Ansgar Belke & Leo Kaas, 2004. "Exchange Rate Movements and Employment Growth: An OCA Assessment of the CEE Economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 247-280, June.
  8. Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2004. "Contagion, herding and exchange-rate instability — A survey," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 222-228, July.
  9. Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2003. "Exchange Rate Variability and Labor Market Performance in the Visegrád Countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 153-175, June.
  10. Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2003. "Costs of Exchange Rate Volatility for Labour Markets - Empirical Evidence from the CEE Economies," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 267–292.
  11. repec:eid:wpaper:01/11 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Ansgar Belke & Martin Hebler & Ralph Setzer, 2003. "Euroisierung der mittel- und osteuropäischen EU-Beitrittskandidaten - ein alternativer Weg in die Währungsunion?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4(4), pages 425-436, November.
  13. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hammermann, Felix & Schweickert, Rainer & Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio, 2004. "European monetary integration after EU enlargement," Kiel Discussion Papers 413, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  14. Ansgar Belke & Frank Baumgärtner, 2002. "Fiskalische Transfermechanismen und asymmetrische Schocks in Euroland," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 71(3), pages 384-399.
  15. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2002. "Monetary integration in the Southern Cone," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 323-349, December.
  16. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2003. "The Cost of Financial Market Variability in the Southern Cone," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 1091-1115.

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