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Optimal Long-Run Fiscal Policy: Constraints, Preferences and the Resolution of Uncertainty

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Author Info
Alan J. Auerbach
Kevin A. Hassett

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Abstract

We construct a computational dynamic stochastic overlapping generations general equilibrium model with uncertain lifetimes and explore the impact of policy stickiness (specifically, a major reform will preclude future reforms for a generation) on optimal long-run fiscal policy. Under such circumstances, entitlement reforms exhaust a valuable option to move in the future. We explore the conditions under which the gain to waiting is large enough to induce optimizing policymakers to delay reforming a suboptimal system. We also allow for the uncertainty to have ARCH characteristics and explore the impact of time-varying uncertainty on the optimality of delayed policy action.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9132.

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Date of creation: Aug 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9132

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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  1. Martin Feldstein & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 2001. "Social Security," NBER Working Papers 8451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    • Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Bernd Raffelhuschen, 1999. "Generational Accounting around the Globe," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 161-166, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Henning Bohn, 1999. "Social Security and Demographic Uncertainty: The Risk Sharing Properties of Alternative Policies," NBER Working Papers 7030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Kimball, Miles S, 1990. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Sheshinski, Eytan & Weiss, Yoram, 1981. "Uncertainty and Optimal Social Security Systems," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 189-206, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Beetsma, Roel & Bovenberg, A Lans, 2007. "Pension systems, Intergenerational Risk Sharing and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 6089, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marco Manzo & Francesco Giuli, 2008. "Policy Uncertainty, Symbiosis, and the Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Conservativeness," Working Papers 0802, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Torben Andersen, 2006. "Increasing Longevity and Social Security Reforms," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  4. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra Sabatini Dwyer & Warren Sanderson, 2006. "A Dynamic Model of Retirement and Social Security Reform Expectations: A Solution to the New Early Retirement Puzzle," Working Papers wp134, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
  5. Torben Andersen, 2005. "Social Security and Longevity," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jukka Lassila & Tarmo Valkonen, 2007. "Longevity Adjustment of Pension Benefits," Discussion Papers 1073, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  7. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marco Manzo, 2008. "Fiscal Policy under Balanced Budget and Indeterminacy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 0803, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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