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Interest rates and financial fragility

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  • Li, Yang

Abstract

How do the interest rates banks earn on their assets affect the susceptibility of the banking system to a self-fulfilling run by depositors? I study this question in a version of the model of Diamond and Dybvig (1983) with limited commitment and a non-trivial portfolio choice. I show that the relationship between these interest rates and financial fragility is often non-monotone. For example, a small increase in the return on illiquid investment (or a small increase in the term premium) may raise banks’ susceptibility to a run, while a larger increase would make the banking system more stable. The same is true for changes in short-term rates, holding the longer-term rates fixed. I provide a precise characterization of these comparative statics of financial fragility.

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  • Li, Yang, 2017. "Interest rates and financial fragility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 195-205.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:82:y:2017:i:c:p:195-205
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2017.06.009
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    Cited by:

    1. Keister, Todd & Mitkov, Yuliyan, 2023. "Allocating losses: Bail-ins, bailouts and bank regulation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    2. Ahnert, Toni & Anand, Kartik & König, Philipp Johann, 2022. "Real interest rates, bank borrowing, and fragility," Working Paper Series 2755, European Central Bank.
    3. Ryuichiro Izumi, 2021. "Opacity: Insurance and Fragility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 40, pages 146-169, April.
    4. Gao, Jiahong & Reed, Robert R., 2021. "Sunspot bank runs and fragility: The role of financial sector competition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. Ryuichiro Izumi & Yang Li, 2021. "Financial Stability with Fire Sale Externalities," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2021-002, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    6. Sim, Khai Zhi, 2023. "Monetary and fiscal coordination in preventing bank failures and financial contagion," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank runs; Excess liquidity; Financial fragility; Portfolio choice; Term premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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