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Strategic central bank communication: Discourse analysis of the Bank of Japan’s Monthly Report

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  • Kawamura, Kohei
  • Kobashi, Yohei
  • Shizume, Masato
  • Ueda, Kozo

Abstract

We conduct a discourse analysis of the Bank of Japan’s Monthly Report and examine its characteristics in relation to business cycles. We find that ambiguous expressions tend to appear more frequently with negative expressions, and this tendency is more pronounced in recessions. This suggests that the central bank communicates strategically by obfuscating the reports when their private information is unfavorable.

Suggested Citation

  • Kawamura, Kohei & Kobashi, Yohei & Shizume, Masato & Ueda, Kozo, 2019. "Strategic central bank communication: Discourse analysis of the Bank of Japan’s Monthly Report," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 230-250.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:100:y:2019:i:c:p:230-250
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2018.11.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Mario Gonzalez and Raul Cruz Tadle & Raul Cruz Tadle, 2022. "Monetary policy press releases: an international comparison," BIS Working Papers 1023, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Paloviita, Maritta & Haavio, Markus & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Kilponen, Juha & Vänni, Ilona, 2020. "Reading between the lines : Using text analysis to estimate the loss function of the ECB," Research Discussion Papers 12/2020, Bank of Finland.
    3. Andreas Eisl, 2020. "The Ambiguous Consensus on Fiscal Rules: How Ideational Ambiguity Has Facilitated Social Democratic Parties’ Support of Structural Deficit Rules in the Eurozone," Sciences Po publications 20/4, Sciences Po.
    4. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2020_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Jianhao Lin & Jiacheng Fan & Yifan Zhang & Liangyuan Chen, 2023. "Real‐time macroeconomic projection using narrative central bank communication," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 202-221, March.
    6. Andreas Eisl, 2020. "The Ambiguous Consensus on Fiscal Rules," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03053976, HAL.
    7. Paloviita, Maritta & Haavio, Markus & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Kilponen, Juha & Vänni, Ilona, 2020. "Reading between the lines: Using text analysis to estimate the loss function of the ECB," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2020, Bank of Finland.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/jpcu0knbl80rpibin9slrlrlb is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Mario Gonzalez & Raul Cruz Tadle, 2021. "Monetary Policy Press Releases: An International Comparison," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 912, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Eisl, Andreas, 2020. "The ambiguous consensus on fiscal rules: How ideational ambiguity has facilitated social democratic parties' support of structural deficit rules in the eurozone," MaxPo Discussion Paper Series 20/4, Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo).
    11. Andreas Eisl, 2020. "The Ambiguous Consensus on Fiscal Rules," Working Papers hal-03053976, HAL.
    12. Amrendra Pandey & Jagadish Shettigar & Amarnath Bose, 2021. "Evaluation of the Inflation Forecasting Process of the Reserve Bank of India: A Text Analysis Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Transparency; Natural language processing; Modality; Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA); Verifiable disclosure model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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