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Central bank communication on financial stability

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Abstract

Central banks regularly communicate about financial stability issues, by publishing Financial Stability Reports (FSRs) and through speeches and interviews. The paper asks how such communications affect financial markets. Building a unique dataset, it provides an empirical assessment of the reactions of stock markets to more than 1000 releases of FSRs and speeches by 37 central banks over the past 14 years. The findings suggest that FSRs have a significant and potentially long-lasting effect on stock market returns, and also tend to reduce market volatility. Speeches and interviews, in contrast, have little effect on market returns and do not generate a volatility reduction during tranquil times, but have had a substantial effect during the 2007-10 financial crisis. The findings suggest that financial stability communication by central banks are perceived by markets to contain relevant information, and they underline the importance of differentiating between communication tools, their content and the environment in which they are employed.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute in its series National Bank of Poland Working Papers with number 93.

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Length: 39
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:93

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Keywords: central bank; financial stability; communication; event study;

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References

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  1. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin & Hui Tong, 2006. "Social Value of Public Information: Morris and Shin (2002) Is Actually Pro-Transparency, Not Con: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 453-455, March.
  3. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
  4. Lars E.O Svensson, 2002. "Monetary policy and real stabilization," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 261-312.
  5. Oosterloo, Sander & de Haan, Jakob & Jong-A-Pin, Richard, 2007. "Financial stability reviews: A first empirical analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 337-355, March.
  6. Momtchil Pojarliev & Richard M. Levich, 2007. "Do Professional Currency Managers Beat the Benchmark?," NBER Working Papers 13714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2006. "Social Value of Public Information: Comment: Morris and Shin (2002) Is Actually Pro-Transparency, Not Con," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 448-452, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Martin Cihák & Sonia Muñoz & Shakira Ten Sharifuddin & Kalin Tintchev, 2012. "Informes de estabilidad financieras: ¿cuál es su utilidad?," Boletín, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(3), pages 181-230, julio-sep.
  2. Ignacio Hernando & Jimena Llopis & Javier Vallés, 2012. "Los retos para la política económica en un entorno de tasas de interés próxima a cero," Boletín, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(3), pages 121-151, julio-sep.
  3. Ianthi Vayid, 2013. "Central Bank Communications Before, During and After the Crisis: From Open-Market Operations to Open-Mouth Policy," Working Papers 13-41, Bank of Canada.
  4. Sònia Muñoz & Samir Jahjah & Martin Cihák & Sharika Teh Sharifuddin & Kalin Tintchev, 2012. "Financial Stability Reports:What Are they Good for?," IMF Working Papers 12/1, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Sazedj, Sharmin & Tavares, José, 2011. "Hope, Change, and Financial Markets: Can Obama's Words Drive the Market?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8713, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Ales Bul�r & Martin Cih�k & David-Jan Jansen, 2011. "Clarity of Central Bank Communication About Inflation," DNB Working Papers 333, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  7. Fumiko Hayashi & William R. Keeton, 2012. "Medición de los costos de los métodos de pago minoristas," Boletín, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(3), pages 152-180, julio-sep.
  8. Pierre L. Siklos, 2013. "The Global Financial Crisis and the Language of Central Banking: Central Bank Guidance in Good Times and in Bad," CAMA Working Papers 2013-58, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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