IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/asieco/v84y2023ics1049007822001312.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

International spillovers of U.S. monetary uncertainty and equity market volatility to China’s stock markets

Author

Listed:
  • Lee, Chi-Chuan
  • Lee, Chien-Chiang

Abstract

Due to the global economy that is currently being increasingly integrated and liberalized, the cross-country transmission of U.S. monetary policy surprises has become a critical issue attracting scholarly attention. This research thus extends the existing literature by assessing the causal linkages among U.S. monetary policy uncertainty (USMPU), equity market volatility, and China’s stock price index over the period from January 1994 to August 2021. We apply Granger causality in quantile analysis to explore the relationships in each quantile of the distribution in a comprehensible manner. The results indicate that equity market volatility and China’s stock price dynamics play little role in affecting USMPU. We also find that only greater changes in both positive monetary policy uncertainty and stock prices lead to changes in equity market volatility. Furthermore, fluctuations in monetary policy uncertainty and equity market volatility in the United States Granger-cause China’s stock prices. Knowing such causality results could prevent market participants from adopting a one-size-fits-all strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2023. "International spillovers of U.S. monetary uncertainty and equity market volatility to China’s stock markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:84:y:2023:i:c:s1049007822001312
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2022.101575
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1049007822001312
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.asieco.2022.101575?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    2. Bhattarai, Saroj & Chatterjee, Arpita & Park, Woong Yong, 2021. "Effects of US quantitative easing on emerging market economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    3. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Tang, Manting & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2023. "Reaping digital dividends: Digital inclusive finance and high-quality development of enterprises in China," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    4. Juhro, Solikin M. & Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2021. "Interdependence between monetary policy and asset prices in ASEAN-5 countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Thomas C. Chiang, 2020. "US policy uncertainty and stock returns: evidence in the US and its spillovers to the European Union, China and Japan," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 21(5), pages 621-657, December.
    6. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2016. "Determinants of global spillovers from US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 41-61.
    7. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Moreland, Timothy & Schaffer, Matthew, 2021. "The international spillover effects of US monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Chiang, Thomas C., 2021. "Spillovers of U.S. market volatility and monetary policy uncertainty to global stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    9. Albagli, Elias & Ceballos, Luis & Claro, Sebastian & Romero, Damian, 2019. "Channels of US monetary policy spillovers to international bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 447-473.
    10. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    11. Galvao Jr., Antonio F., 2009. "Unit root quantile autoregression testing using covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 152(2), pages 165-178, October.
    12. K.P. Prabheesh & Solikin M. Juhro & Cicilia A. Harun, 2021. "Covid-19 Uncertainty And Monetary Policy Responses: Evidence From Emerging Market Economies," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 24(4), pages 489-516.
    13. Min Liu & Wei‐Chong Choo & Chi‐Chuan Lee & Chien‐Chiang Lee, 2023. "Trading volume and realized volatility forecasting: Evidence from the China stock market," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 76-100, January.
    14. Fitri Ami Handayani & Febrio Kacaribu, 2021. "Asymmetric Transmission Of Monetary Policy To Interest Rates: Empirical Evidence From Indonesia," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 24(1), pages 119-150.
    15. Wang, En-Ze & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Li, Yaya, 2022. "Assessing the impact of industrial robots on manufacturing energy intensity in 38 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    16. Pearce, Douglas K & Roley, V Vance, 1983. "The Reaction of Stock Prices to Unanticipated Changes in Money: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1323-1333, September.
    17. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    18. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zhou, Hegang & Xu, Chao & Zhang, Xiaoming, 2023. "Dynamic spillover effects among international crude oil markets from the time-frequency perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    19. Xiao, Zhijie, 2009. "Quantile cointegrating regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 248-260, June.
    20. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2019. "Can stale oil price news predict stock returns?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 430-444.
    21. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Ho, Shan-Ju, 2022. "Financial aid and financial inclusion: Does risk uncertainty matter?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    22. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Kyle J. Kost, 2019. "Policy News and Stock Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 25720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Zhang, Xiaoming & Zhang, Tong & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "The path of financial risk spillover in the stock market based on the R-vine-Copula model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 600(C).
    24. Nong, Huifu, 2021. "Have cross-category spillovers of economic policy uncertainty changed during the US–China trade war?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    25. Cepni, Oguzhan & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Time-varying impact of monetary policy shocks on US stock returns: The role of investor sentiment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    26. Debi Bal & Seba Mohanty, 2021. "Sectoral Nonlinear Causality Between Stock Market Volatility and the COVID-19 Pandemic - Evidence From India," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 2(1), pages 1-4.
    27. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    28. Zhu, Chen & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "The effects of low-carbon pilot policy on technological innovation: Evidence from prefecture-level data in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    29. Roger Koenker & Zhijie Xiao, 2004. "Unit Root Quantile Autoregression Inference," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 775-787, January.
    30. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach, 2022. "Terrorism and international stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    31. Ying Xu & Hai Anh La, 2017. "Spillovers of the United States’ Unconventional Monetary Policy to Emerging Asia: The Bank Lending Channel," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(12), pages 2744-2769, December.
    32. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2001. "The Transmission Mechanism and the Role of Asset Prices in Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Xiao, Shunyi, 2021. "Policy-related risk and corporate financing behavior: Evidence from China’s listed companies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 539-547.
    34. Wang, Chih-Wei & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Ming-Chien, 2022. "The effects of economic policy uncertainty and country governance on banks' liquidity creation: International evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    35. Hussain, Jafar & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Yongxiu, 2022. "Optimal green technology investment and emission reduction in emissions generating companies under the support of green bond and subsidy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    36. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Yuan, Zihao & Lee, Chi-Chuan & Chang, Yu-Fang, 2022. "The impact of renewable energy technology innovation on energy poverty: Does climate risk matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    37. Ping Wei & Yinshu Qi & Xiaohang Ren & Kun Duan, 2022. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Green Bond Markets? Evidence from Wavelet-Based Quantile Analysis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(15), pages 4375-4388, December.
    38. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "Quantile risk spillovers between energy and agricultural commodity markets: Evidence from pre and during COVID-19 outbreak," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    39. Zhao, Jinsong & Li, Xinghao & Yu, Chin-Hsien & Chen, Shi & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2022. "Riding the FinTech innovation wave: FinTech, patents and bank performance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    40. Victor Troster, 2018. "Testing for Granger-causality in quantiles," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 850-866, September.
    41. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Tang, Huayun & Li, Ding, 2022. "The roles of oil shocks and geopolitical uncertainties on China’s green bond returns," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 494-505.
    42. Bomfim, Antulio N., 2003. "Pre-announcement effects, news effects, and volatility: Monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 133-151, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. van Eyden, Reneé & Gupta, Rangan & Nielsen, Joshua & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "Investor sentiment and multi-scale positive and negative stock market bubbles in a panel of G7 countries," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    2. Wang, Chih-Wei & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wu, Lin-Tan, 2023. "The relationship between cash flow uncertainty and extreme risk: International evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Yu, Chin-Hsien & Zhang, Jian, 2023. "Heterogeneous dependence among cryptocurrency, green bonds, and sustainable equity: New insights from Granger-causality in quantiles analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 99-109.
    4. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Fuhao & Chang, Yu-Fang, 2023. "Does green finance promote renewable energy? Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    5. Sokhanvar, Amin & Çiftçioğlu, Serhan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2023. "The effect of energy price shocks on commodity currencies during the war in Ukraine," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Abdullah, Mohammad & Adeabah, David & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2023. "Extreme return and volatility connectedness among real estate tokens, REITs, and other assets: The role of global factors and portfolio implications," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chiang, Thomas C., 2021. "Spillovers of U.S. market volatility and monetary policy uncertainty to global stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    2. Wang, Chih-Wei & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wu, Lin-Tan, 2023. "The relationship between cash flow uncertainty and extreme risk: International evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lou, Runchi & Wang, Fuhao, 2023. "Digital financial inclusion and poverty alleviation: Evidence from the sustainable development of China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 418-434.
    4. Zhang, Xiaoming & Zhang, Xinsong & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zhao, Yue, 2023. "Measurement and prediction of systemic risk in China’s banking industry," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Wen, Huwei & Liang, Weitao & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "Urban broadband infrastructure and green total-factor energy efficiency in China," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Zhang, Xiaoming & Liang, Qian & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2023. "How does central bank transparency affect systemic risk? Evidence from developed and developing countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 101-115.
    7. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Fuhao & Lou, Runchi & Wang, Keying, 2023. "How does green finance drive the decarbonization of the economy? Empirical evidence from China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 671-684.
    8. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Tang, Manting & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2023. "Reaping digital dividends: Digital inclusive finance and high-quality development of enterprises in China," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    9. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Yuan, Zihao & Lee, Chi-Chuan & Chang, Yu-Fang, 2022. "The impact of renewable energy technology innovation on energy poverty: Does climate risk matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    10. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Xu, Zhi-Ting, 2023. "Signaling effect of cash holdings adjustment before bond issuance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    11. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chang-song, 2022. "Does natural resources matter for sustainable energy development in China: The role of technological progress," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    12. Mighri, Zouheir & Ragoubi, Hanen & Sarwar, Suleman & Wang, Yihan, 2022. "Quantile Granger causality between US stock market indices and precious metal prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    13. Zhu, Chen & Jin, Zhuo & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "The impact of informal care from children to their elderly parents on self-employment? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    14. Muhammad Asif Qureshi & Jawaid Ahmed Qureshi & Ammar Ahmed & Shahzad Qaiser & Ramsha Ali & Arshian Sharif, 2020. "The Dynamic Relationship Between Technology Innovation and Human Development in Technologically Advanced Countries: Fresh Insights from Quantiles-on-Quantile Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 152(2), pages 555-580, November.
    15. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Zhang, Jian & Hou, Shanshuai, 2023. "The impact of regional renewable energy development on environmental sustainability in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    16. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2022. "Uncertainty Before and During COVID-19: A Survey," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0279, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    17. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Li, Yong-Yi, 2021. "Oil price shocks, geopolitical risks, and green bond market dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    18. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Fuhao & Chang, Yu-Fang, 2023. "Does green finance promote renewable energy? Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    19. Wan, Jianjun & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2023. "Corporate investment and the dilemma of the monetary policy: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 106-121.
    20. Lv, Chengchao & Song, Jie & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "Can digital finance narrow the regional disparities in the quality of economic growth? Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 502-521.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International spillover; Monetary policy uncertainty; Equity market volatility; Stock market; Granger-causality in quantiles analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:84:y:2023:i:c:s1049007822001312. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/asieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.