A dynamic bio-economic model to simulate optimal adjustments of suckler cow farm management to production and market shocks in France
AbstractTactical adjustments to seasonal weather conditions and beef price may generate additional income or avoid losses in French beef cattle farms. Due to the length of the suckler cow production cycle, adjustment decisions may impact not only on current production and profit but also on future farm outcomes. To better understand the consequences of shocks and subsequent production adjustments on the evolution of farm earnings and production over time, we built a dynamic recursive bio-economic farm model. Our model introduced simultaneously the possibility of adjusting herd size and herd composition, diet composition and diet energy content, as well as crop rotation, haymaking and feed stocks, taking into account both their short- and long-term consequences. An application is provided to test impacts of crop yield and beef price shocks of different intensities. Main simulated adjustments to face unfavourable weather shocks are (1) purchased feed in order to maintain animal production objectives, and (2) area of pasture harvested for haymaking. Very severe beef price shocks induce forced sales. Weather shocks affect farm net profit not only of the current year but also of the following years. Profit losses caused by unfavourable weather conditions are not compensated by gains in favourable ones and this differential is amplified when intensity of shocks rises.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Agricultural Systems.
Volume (Year): 102 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1-3 (October)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy
Farm management Livestock production Recursive model Tactical adjustments Risk;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
- Matthews, K.B. & Wright, I.A. & Buchan, K. & Davies, D.A. & Schwarz, G., 2006. "Assessing the options for upland livestock systems under CAP reform: Developing and applying a livestock systems model within whole-farm systems analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-3), pages 32-61, October.
- Kingwell, Ross S. & Pannell, David J. & Robinson, Stephen D., 1993. "Tactical responses to seasonal conditions in whole-farm planning in Western Australia," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 211-226, March.
- Olson, Kent D. & Mikesell, Chris L., 1988. "The Range Stocking Decision And Stochastic Forage Production," Staff Papers 13502, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
- Kobayashi, Mimako & Howitt, Richard E. & Jarvis, Lovell S. & Laca, Emilio A., 2007. "AJAE Appendix: Stochastic Rangeland Use Under Capital Constraints," American Journal of Agricultural Economics Appendices, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(3), August.
- Aude Ridier & Florence Jacquet, 2002. "Decoupling Direct Payments and the Dynamics of Decisions under Price Risk in Cattle Farms," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 549-565.
- Sullivan, G. M. & Cartwright, T. C. & Farris, D. E., 1981. "Simulation of production systems in East Africa by use of interfaced forage and cattle models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 245-265, December.
- Herbert Dawid, 2005. "Long horizon versus short horizon planning in dynamic optimization problems with incomplete information," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 575-597, 04.
- Lambert, David K., 1989. "Calf Retention And Production Decisions Over Time," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(01), July.
- Janssen, Sander & van Ittersum, Martin K., 2007. "Assessing farm innovations and responses to policies: A review of bio-economic farm models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 622-636, June.
- Iglesias, Eva & Garrido, Alberto & Gomez-Ramos, Almudena, 2003. "Evaluation of drought management in irrigated areas," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 211-229, October.
- Darren L. Frechette, 2005. "How does aversion to intertemporal variation affect hedging behavior?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(s3), pages 389-398, November.
- Gillard, Peter & Monypenny, Richard, 1990. "A decision support model to evaluate the effects of drought and stocking rate on beef cattle properties in Northern Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 37-52.
- Sergio H. Lence, 2000. "Using Consumption and Asset Return Data to Estimate Farmers' Time Preferences and Risk Attitudes," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 934-947.
- Lence, Sergio H., 2000. "Using Consumption and Asset Return Data to Estimate Farmersï¾’ Time Preferences and Risk Attitudes," Staff General Research Papers 1930, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Veysset, P. & Bebin, D. & Lherm, M., 2005. "Adaptation to Agenda 2000 (CAP reform) and optimisation of the farming system of French suckler cattle farms in the Charolais area: a model-based study," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 179-202, February.
- Emilio A. Laca, 2007. "Stochastic Rangeland Use under Capital Constraints," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(3), pages 805-817.
- Mosnier, Claire & Ridier, Aude & Kphaliacos, Charilaos & Carpy-Goulard, Françoise, 2009. "Economic and environmental impact of the CAP mid-term review on arable crop farming in South-western France," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 1408-1416, March.
- Nerlove, Marc & Bessler, David A., 2001. "Expectations, information and dynamics," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 155-206 Elsevier.
- Pannell, David J. & Malcolm, Bill & Kingwell, Ross S., 2000. "Are we risking too much? Perspectives on risk in farm modelling," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 69-78, June.
- Barbier, B. & Bergeron, G., 1999. "Impact of policy interventions on land management in Honduras: results of a bioeconomic model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 1-16, May.
- Petr Havlík & Patrick Veysset & Jean-Marie Boisson & Michel Lherm & Florence Jacquet, 2005. "Joint production under uncertainty and multifunctionality of agriculture: policy considerations and applied analysis," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 489-515, December.
- Kingwell, Ross S., 1994. "Effects of Tactical Responses and Risk Aversion on Farm Wheat Supply," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(01), April.
- Mosnier, Claire & Agabriel, Jacques & Lherm, Michel & Reynaud, Arnaud, 2011. "On-farm weather risk management in suckler cow farms: A recursive discrete stochastic programming approach," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114645, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Dono, Gabriele & Cortignani, Raffaele & Giraldo, Luca & Doro, Luca & Ledda, Luigi & Pasqui, Massimiliano & Roggero, PierPaolo, 2012. "Evaluating productive and economic impacts of climate change variability on the farm sector of an irrigated Mediterranean area," 126th Seminar, June 27-29, 2012, Capri, Italy 126099, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.