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Expectations, information and dynamics

In: Handbook of Agricultural Economics

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  • Nerlove, Marc
  • Bessler, David A.

Abstract

The role of expectations in the empirical analysis of agricultural supply is examined under the assumption of separation of expectations and constraints in dynamic decision making. Extrapolative, adaptive, implicit, rational and quasi-rational, and futures-based models of expectation formation are discussed. Empirical and experimental evidence for and against various models of expectation is summarized.

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This chapter was published in:

  • B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), 2001. "Handbook of Agricultural Economics," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1, 00.
    This item is provided by Elsevier in its series Handbook of Agricultural Economics with number 1-03.

    Handle: RePEc:eee:hagchp:1-03

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/bookseriesdescription.cws_home/BS_HE/description

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    Cited by:
    1. Pouliot, Sebastien, 2008. "Estimating the Costs and Benefits of Cattle Traceability: the Case of the Quebec Cattle Traceability System," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6522, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Meszaros, Sandor, 2008. "Theory testing (hypothesis testing) in agricultural economics," Studies in Agricultural Economics, Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, issue 107, March.
    3. Kristofersson, Dadi & Rickertsen, Kyrre, 2005. "High-Grading in a Quota-Regulated Fishery, with Empirical Evidence from the Icelandic Cod Fishery," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24722, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Castro, Eduardo Rodrigues de & Teixeira, Erly Cardoso & Valdes, Constanza, 2012. "Sugar Cane Expansion: Does It Contribute To Amazon Deforestation?," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 131703, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Féménia, Fabienne & Gohin, Alexandre, 2011. "Dynamic modelling of agricultural policies: The role of expectation schemes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1950-1958, July.
    6. Sunil Kanwar, 2004. "Relative Profitability, Supply Shifters and Dynamic Output Response:The Indian Foodgrains," Working papers 133, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    7. Sunil Kanwar, 2007. "Price Incentives, Nonprice factors, and Crop Supply Response: The Indian Cash Crops," Working Papers id:1180, eSocialSciences.
    8. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & von Braun, Joachim, 2013. "Short-term global crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility," Discussion Papers 145308, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    9. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Braun, Joachim von, 2013. "Inter-and intra-annual global crop acreage response to prices and price risk," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149695, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Kim, Yun-Shik & Sumner, Daniel A., 2005. "Measuring Research Benefits With Import Ban Restrictions, Quality Changes, Non-Market Influences On Adoption And Food Security Incentives," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19148, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Catherine Hausman, 2012. "Biofuels and Land Use Change: Sugarcane and Soybean Acreage Response in Brazil," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 51(2), pages 163-187, February.
    12. Féménia, Fabienne & Gohin, Alexandre, 2013. "On the optimal implementation of agricultural policy reforms," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 61-74.
    13. Mark W. Nichols & Michael J. Radzicki, 2007. "An Agent-Based Model of Behavior in “Beauty Contest” Games," Working Papers 07-010, University of Nevada, Reno, Department of Economics;University of Nevada, Reno , Department of Resource Economics.
    14. Mosnier, C. & Agabriel, J. & Lherm, M. & Reynaud, A., 2009. "A dynamic bio-economic model to simulate optimal adjustments of suckler cow farm management to production and market shocks in France," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 102(1-3), pages 77-88, October.
    15. Fabienne Féménia & Alexandre Gohin, 2010. "Faut-il une intervention publique pour stabiliser les marchés agricoles ? Revue des questions non résolues," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 91(4), pages 435-456.
    16. Kanwar, Sunil, 2006. "Relative profitability, supply shifters and dynamic output response, in a developing economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 67-88, January.
    17. Umarov, Alisher & Sherrick, Bruce J., 2005. "Farmers' Subjective Yield Distributions: Calibration and Implications for Crop Insurance Valuation," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19396, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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