Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Assessing Economic And Technical Impacts Of Non Expected Weather Events On French Suckler Cow Farms Dynamics: A Dynamic Recursive Farm Model

Contents:

Author Info

  • Mosnier, Claire
  • Agabriel, Jacques
  • Lherm, Michel
  • Reynaud, Arnaud

Abstract

Weather variability can threaten French suckler cow farms which rely on rather extensive forage production. However, flexibility of the production system can help farmer to face crop production shocks. This study aims at assessing how crop yield shocks impact on farms outcomes when adaptive capacity is taken into account. Our objectives are to develop a dynamic model which enables us 1) to predict the optimal mix of production adjustments to face crop yield shocks, 2) to quantify how far the system moves from the equilibrium and how long it takes to return and 3) to measure impact of shocks on economic results when adaptive capacity is taken into account. An original dynamic recursive bio-economic farm model integrating detailed technical and biological constraints and coupled with biological sub-models has been built and calibrated to represent an average farm producing charolais finished animals. Crop yield shocks of intensities ranging between -60% and +60% of their average values are simulated in between average years. A preference for maintaining animal sales and animal live weight at the expense of crop products trade balance is found. Thought, when intensities of shocks get higher, forced sales and important variations of the area of pasture cut are observed. Essential of loss (or gain) of net profit is felt the year of the shock but can be remnant for several years. In addition, gains for good years do not totally compensate loss of symmetric bad ones. Consequently, farms capacity to face risk could be weaken over time. Minimum consumption needs, probability distribution of shocks and successions or combinations of shocks would have thought to be taken into account to assess real capacity of farms to maintain over time.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44257
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium with number 44257.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae08:44257

Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://www.eaae.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: livestock farm model; dynamic recursive model; crop yield variability; Livestock Production/Industries;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Kingwell, Ross S. & Pannell, David J. & Robinson, Stephen D., 1993. "Tactical responses to seasonal conditions in whole-farm planning in Western Australia," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 211-226, March.
  2. Sullivan, G. M. & Cartwright, T. C. & Farris, D. E., 1981. "Simulation of production systems in East Africa by use of interfaced forage and cattle models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 245-265, December.
  3. Petr HavlĂ­k & Patrick Veysset & Jean-Marie Boisson & Michel Lherm & Florence Jacquet, 2005. "Joint production under uncertainty and multifunctionality of agriculture: policy considerations and applied analysis," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 489-515, December.
  4. Cacho, O. J. & Bywater, A. C. & Dillon, J. L., 1999. "Assessment of production risk in grazing models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 87-98, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:eaae08:44257. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.