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Identifying macroeconomic effects of refugee migration to Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Enzo Weber

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB))

  • Roland Weigand

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB))

Abstract

The underlying note investigates migration impacts on the German economy, explicitly distinguishing between refugee and non-refugee immigration. For this purpose, we propose a macroeconometric modelling approach complemented by instrumental variables. We find that refugee migration causes positive short-run reactions that would typically be connected to the demand side of the economy. However, it exerts negative effects on GDP and the labour market in the medium run. In contrast, non-refugee immigration turns out to have more beneficial medium-run effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Enzo Weber & Roland Weigand, 2018. "Identifying macroeconomic effects of refugee migration to Germany," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 852-862.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-18-00126
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hutter, Christian & Klinger, Sabine & Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2019. "Which factors are behind Germany's labour market upswing?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201920, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Sabine Klinger & Anvar Musayev & Jean-Marc Natal & Enzo Weber, 2019. "Immigration and Wage Dynamics in Germany," IMF Working Papers 2019/301, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Stefan Bach & Peter Haan & Kristina van Deuverden & Björn Fischer & Herbert Brücker & Agnese Romiti & Enzo Weber, 2017. "Abschätzung von Effekten der Integration von Flüchtlingen: Kurzexpertise für das Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Soziales," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 117, number pbk117, Enero-Abr.
    4. Fuchs, Johann & Gehrke, Britta & Hummel, Markus & Hutter, Christian & Wanger, Susanne & Weber, Enzo & Weigand, Roland & Zika, Gerd, 2016. "IAB-Prognose 2016/2017: Arbeitslosigkeit sinkt weiter," IAB-Kurzbericht 201620, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    5. Auer, Daniel & Götz, Lilia, 2021. "Refugee migration, labor demand, and local employment," GLO Discussion Paper Series 989, Global Labor Organization (GLO).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Immigration; refugees; economic effects; macroeconometric modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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