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The macroeconomics of immigration

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  • Kiguchi, Takehiro
  • Mountford, Andrew

Abstract

Immigration has been a significant part of US population growth over recent decades, with the number of ``foreign born to non-US nationals" rising from approximately 10 million in 1970 to nearly 40 million or 12.9% of the US total population in 2010. In this paper, using a VAR with sign restriction identification, we find that unexpected increases in the working population lead to temporary reductions in GDP per capita and consumption per capita as would be predicted by the standard neoclassical growth model. However they do not lead to increases in non-residential investment or short run decreases in real wages as would also be predicted. The paper shows how a neoclassical growth model with a CES production function where migrant labor and capital are complements to skilled domestic labor and substitutes to each other can produce responses closer to those in the VAR. The paper thus provide support for the microeconometric studies on the impacts of immigration which found that immigrant labor is complementary to, rather than a substitute for, most native labor.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 45517.

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Date of creation: Mar 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:45517

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Keywords: Macroeconomics; Immigration;

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References

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  1. Matthias Doepke & Moshe Hazan & Yishay Maoz, 2007. "The Baby Boom and World War II: A Macroeconomic Analysis," NBER Working Papers 13707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Christian Dustmann & Tommaso Frattini & Ian P. Preston, 2013. "The Effect of Immigration along the Distribution of Wages," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(1), pages 145-173.
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  4. Harald Uhlig & Mathias Trabandt, 2009. "How Far are We from the Slippery Slope? The Laffer Curve Revisited," Working Papers, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics 2009-005, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  5. Jonathan Wadsworth, 2010. "The UK Labour Market and Immigration," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 213(1), pages R35-R42, July.
  6. Cristiano Cantore & Filippo Ferroni & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2012. "The dynamics of hours worked and technology," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1238, Banco de Espa�a.
  7. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
  8. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-039, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  9. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," NBER Working Papers 17447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Petra Duenhaupt, 2011. "The Impact of Financialization on Income Distribution in the USA and Germany: A Proposal for a New Adjusted Wage Share," IMK Working Paper 7-2011, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  11. Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez, 2006. "The Evolution of Top Incomes: A Historical and International Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 200-205, May.
  12. Marco Manacorda & Alan Manning & Jonathan Wadsworth, 2012. "The Impact Of Immigration On The Structure Of Wages: Theory And Evidence From Britain," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 120-151, 02.
  13. Valerie A. Ramey, 2009. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's All in the Timing," NBER Working Papers 15464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P. & Peri, Giovanni, 2007. "Rethinking the effects of immigration on wages," HWWI Research Papers 3-8, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  15. Markus Brückner & Evi Pappa, 2012. "Fiscal Expansions, Unemployment, And Labor Force Participation: Theory And Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1205-1228, November.
  16. Trabandt, Mathias & Uhlig, Harald, 2011. "The Laffer curve revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 305-327.
  17. Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez, 2003. "Income Inequality In The United States, 1913-1998," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 1-39, February.
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Cited by:
  1. d'Albis, Hippolyte & Boubtane, Ekrame & Coulibaly, Dramane, 2013. "Immigration Policy and Macroeconomic Performances in France," MPRA Paper 50749, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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