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The 2009 recovery act and the expected inflation channel of government spending

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  • William Dupor
  • Rong Li

Abstract

There exist sticky price models in which the output response to a government spending change can be large if the central bank is nonresponsive to inflation. According to this “expected inflation channel," government spending drives up expected inflation, which in turn, reduces the real interest rate and leads to an increase in private consumption. This paper examines whether the channel was important during the 2009 Recovery Act period. Examining U.S. expected inflation measures based on professional surveys and a cross-country comparison of bond yields, we conclude that the Recovery Act had a much smaller expected inflation effect than suggested by an appropriately calibrated large output multiplier" sticky price model. Moreover, we show that the channel is inconsistent quantitatively with vector autoregression evidence from the Federal Reserve's passive policy period. Taking the evidence as a whole, we conclude that if the Act had exhibited a large output multiplier, it was not likely due to the expected inflation channel as formulated in existing research.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2013-026.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2013-026

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Fiscal policy ; American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009;

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  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February.
  2. Davig, Troy & Leeper, Eric M., 2009. "Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions and Fiscal Stimulus," CEPR Discussion Papers 7509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Conley, Timothy G. & Dupor, Bill, 2013. "The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act: Solely a government jobs program?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 535-549.
  4. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 16311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  6. Massimo Guidolin & Christopher J. Neely, 2010. "The effects of large-scale asset purchases on TIPS inflation expectations," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  7. JonasD.M. Fisher & Ryan Peters, 2010. "Using Stock Returns to Identify Government Spending Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 414-436, 05.
  8. Valerie A. Ramey, 2009. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's All in the Timing," NBER Working Papers 15464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "When is the government spending multiplier large?," NBER Working Papers 15394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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