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Restrictive immigration policy in Germany: Pains and gains foregone?

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  • Felbermayr, Gabriel
  • Geis, Wido
  • Kohler, Wilhelm K.

Abstract

Many European countries restrict immigration from new EU member countries. The rationale is to avoid adverse wage and employment effects. We quantify these effects for Germany. Following Borjas (in Q J Econ CXVIII(4):1335-1374, 2003), we estimate a structural model of labor demand, based on elasticities of substitution between workers with different experience levels and education. We allow for unemployment which we model in a price-wage-setting framework. Simulating a counterfactual scenario without restrictions for migration from new EU members countries in Germany, we find moderate negative wage and employment effects for incumbent foreigners, but positive effects for natives. Our results indicate that for the native German population as a whole the immigration restrictions are not welfare enhancing.

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Paper provided by University of Munich, Department of Economics in its series Munich Reprints in Economics with number 20616.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Publication status: Published in Review of World Economics 1 146(2010): pp. 1-21
Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenar:20616

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References

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  1. Francesco D'Amuri & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2008. "The Labor Market Impact of Immigration in Western Germany in the 1990's," NBER Working Papers 13851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 2005. "The Wage Curve Reloaded," NBER Working Papers 11338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. George J. Borjas, 1994. "The Economic Benefits from Immigration," NBER Working Papers 4955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. George J. Borjas, 2003. "The Labor Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping: Reexamining The Impact Of Immigration On The Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1335-1374, November.
  5. David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 2001. "Can Falling Supply Explain The Rising Return To College For Younger Men? A Cohort-Based Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(2), pages 705-746, May.
  6. Marco Manacorda & Alan Manning & Jonathan Wadsworth, 2006. "The impact of immigration on the structure of male wages: theory and evidence from Britain," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19797, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  7. Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2006. "Rethinking the Effects of Immigration on Wages," NBER Working Papers 12497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2006. "Reconciling the Estimates of Potential Migration into the Enlarged European Union," IZA Discussion Papers 2519, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Berry, R Albert & Soligo, Ronald, 1969. "Some Welfare Aspects of International Migration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(5), pages 778-94, Sept./Oct.
  10. Abdurrahman Aydemir & George J. Borjas, 2007. "Cross-Country Variation in the Impact of International Migration: Canada, Mexico, and the United States," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(4), pages 663-708, 06.
  11. Borjas, George J & Freeman, Richard B & Katz, Lawrence, 1996. "Searching for the Effect of Immigration on the Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 246-51, May.
  12. David Card, 1989. "The Impact of the Mariel Boatlift on the Miami Labor Market," Working Papers 633, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  13. Borjas, George J., 1999. "The economic analysis of immigration," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 28, pages 1697-1760 Elsevier.
  14. Hans-Werner Sinn & Gebhard Flaig & Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Nicola Düll & Herbert Hofmann, 2001. "EU-Erweiterung und Arbeitskräftemigration : Wege zu einer schrittweisen Annäherung der Arbeitsmärkte," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 2, July.
  15. George J. Borjas & Jeffrey Grogger & Gordon H. Hanson, 2008. "Imperfect Substitution between Immigrants and Natives: A Reappraisal," NBER Working Papers 13887, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Brücker, Herbert & Jahn, Elke J., 2008. "Migration and the Wage Curve: A Structural Approach to Measure the Wage and Employment Effects of Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 3423, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  17. Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler, 2004. "Immigration and native welfare," Economics working papers 2004-01, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  18. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1985. "International Trade and Labor Migration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 691-707, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Anthony Edo, 2013. "The Impact of Immigration on Native Wages and Employment," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13064, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  2. Vallizadeh, Ehsan & Muysken, Joan & Ziesemer, Thomas, 2013. "Migration, unemployment and skill downgrading : a specific-factors approach," IAB Discussion Paper 201313, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  3. Sara de la Rica & Albretch Glitz & Francesc Ortega, 2013. "Immigration in Europe: Trends, Policies and Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 2013-16, FEDEA.
  4. Muysken, Joan & Vallizadeh, Ehsan & Ziesemer, Thomas, 2012. "The impact of Medium-Skilled immigration: A general equilibrium approach," MERIT Working Papers 055, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  5. Muysken, Joan & Vallizadeh, Ehsan & Ziesemer, Thomas, 2012. "Migration, Unemployment, and Over-qualification: A Specific-Factors Model Approach," MPRA Paper 43057, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Gianmarco I P Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2008. "Immigration and National Wages: Clarifying the Theory and the Empirics," Working Papers 2008.77, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  7. Francesco D'Amuri & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2008. "The Labor Market Impact of Immigration in Western Germany in the 1990's," NBER Working Papers 13851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Grossmann, Volker & Kohler, Wilhelm, 2012. "Migration, International Trade and Capital Formation: Cause or Effect?," IZA Discussion Papers 6975, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Anthony Edo, 2013. "The Impact of Immigration on Native Wages and Employment," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00881131, HAL.
  10. Joël MACHADO, 2012. "On the welfare impacts of an immigration amnesty," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2012010, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).

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