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Die Liquidität in der Eurozone ist nicht zu hoch

Author

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  • Christian Dreger
  • Jürgen Wolters

Abstract

Die Geldmenge M3 steigt seit einigen Jahren stärker, als es der Referenzwert der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) vorsieht. Die überschüssige Liquiditätsversorgung wird oftmals als Indikator für aufkommende Infl ationsgefahren interpretiert, denen die EZB möglichst frühzeitig durch Zinserhöhungen begegnen sollte. Tatsächlich ist es aber bislang nicht zu einer anziehenden Infl ation gekommen. Neuere ökonometrische Studien deuten allerdings auf zunehmende Unwägbarkeiten in der Geldnachfrage hin. Dieser Befund würde die monetäre Strategie der EZB, zumindest was die erste Säule betrifft, die wesentlich auf der Entwicklung von Geldbeständen beruht, in Frage stellen. Im Gegensatz zu diesen Untersuchungen wird hier in einer umfangreichen Stabilitätsanalyse1 nachgewiesen, dass die Entwicklung von M3 sowohl kurz- als auch langfristig nach wie vor im Zusammenhang steht mit den wichtigen makroökonomischen Bestimmungsfaktoren. Wesentlich für dieses Ergebnis ist die adäquate Berücksichtigung der Infl ationsrate bei der Bewertung der Geldnachfrage. Es ist nicht zu erwarten, dass die aktuelle Geldversorgung zu einem Anstieg der Infl ation führen wird.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2006. "Die Liquidität in der Eurozone ist nicht zu hoch," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 73(25), pages 373-377.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:73-25-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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