Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil III: Konvergenz

Contents:

Author Info

  • Beate Schirwitz
  • Christian Seiler
  • Klaus Wohlrabe

    ()

Abstract

Im letzten Teil der dreiteiligen Artikelserie zu regionalen Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland wird untersucht, ob die Wirtschaftszyklen der Bundesländer im Zeitverlauf ähnlicher werden, d.h. konvergieren. Aufbauend auf Teil II werden zunächst die für alle Bundesländer berechneten Wendepunkte für eine erste Konvergenzmessung herangezogen. Im zweiten Schritt werden aus den Umsatzreihen Konjunkturzyklen unter Verwendung dreier Filterverfahren extrahiert. Mit Hilfe von rollenden Korrelationen können diese dann ebenfalls auf ihren Zusammenhang im Zeitablauf mit dem gesamtdeutschen Zyklus analysiert werden. Die Ergebnisse zeigen für die einzelnen Bundesländer ein differenziertes Bild. Für einen Großteil der Bundesländer hat eine Konvergenz bereits stattgefunden, d.h. Auf- und Abschwünge finden ungefähr im selben Zeitabschnitt statt. Eine weitere Gruppe ist durch eine Verschiebung der Phasen gekennzeichnet. Hier gilt es abzuwarten, ob eine Konvergenz möglicherweise in der Zukunft eintreten wird. Ähnliches gilt für die Stadtstaaten, deren Konjunkturzyklen sich erheblich von denen der anderen Bundesländer unterscheiden.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-ifo_Schnelldienst/zs-sd-2009/ifosd_2009_15_3.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 62 (2009)
Issue (Month): 15 (08)
Pages: 23-32

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:62:y:2009:i:15:p:23-32

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Email:
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Regionaler Konjunkturzyklus; Konvergenz; Filterung; Konjunktur; Bundesländer;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil II: Die Zyklendatierung," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(14), pages 24-31, 07.
  2. Joachim Ragnitz, 2013. "Konvergenz von Wirtschaftsräumen – Eine Illusion?," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(01), pages 03-04, 02.
  3. Funke, Michael & Strulik, Holger, 1999. "Regional growth in West Germany: convergence or divergence?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 489-502, December.
  4. Henning Klodt, 2000. "Industrial Policy and the East German Productivity Puzzle," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(3), pages 315-333, 08.
  5. Croux, Christophe & Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "A Measure of Comovement for Economic Variables: Theory and Empirics," CEPR Discussion Papers 2339, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Mastromarco, Camilla & Woitek, Ulrich, 2007. "Regional business cycles in Italy," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 907-918, October.
  7. Juessen, Falko, 2009. "A Distribution Dynamics Approach to Regional GDP Convergence in Unified Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 4177, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Roberta Colavecchio & Declan Curran & Michael Funke, 2009. "Drifting together or falling apart? The empirics of regional economic growth in post-unification Germany," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(9), pages 1087-1098.
  9. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Iikka Korhonen, 2003. "Similarity of Supply and Demand Shocks Between the Euro Area and the CEECs," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 77, Royal Economic Society.
  10. Todd E. Clark & Kwanho Shin, 1998. "The sources of fluctuations within and across countries," Research Working Paper 98-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  11. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
  12. Lourdes Acedo Montoya & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Regional Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe," Bruges European Economic Research Papers 11, European Economic Studies Department, College of Europe.
  13. Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil I: Die Datenlage," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(13), pages 18-24, 07.
  14. Massmann, Michael & Mitchell, James, 2003. "Reconsidering the evidence: Are Eurozone business cycles converging," ZEI Working Papers B 05-2003, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  15. Jakob de Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong-A-Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, 04.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Wenzel, Lars, 2013. "Forecasting regional growth in Germany: A panel approach using business survey data," HWWI Research Papers 133, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  2. Wenzel, Lars & Wolf, André, 2013. "Short-term forecasting with business surveys: Evidence for German IHK data at federal state level," HWWI Research Papers 140, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:62:y:2009:i:15:p:23-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.