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Measuring Synchronicity and Co-movement of Business Cycles with an Application to the Euro Area

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Author Info
Mark Mink
Jan Jacobs ()
Jakob de Haan ()

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Abstract

We develop multivariate measures of synchronicity and co-movement of business cycles. In addition to synchronicity, the co-movement measure takes differences between cycle amplitudes into account that have been overlooked in most previous studies. We apply the new measures to the euro area. Synchronicity and co-movement for the region as a whole do not exhibit a clear upward tendency. Although several countries saw the similarity of their business cycle vis-`a-vis the euro area reference cycle increase, national business cycles remain fairly diverse. Changes in business cycle amplitudes cause most of the observed change in cycle co-movement.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 2112.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2112

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Related research
Keywords: business cycles; synchronisation; concordance; co-movement; cycle amplitudes; euro area;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General
F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Marianne Baxter & Michael Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Working Paper Series WP-04-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jakob de Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong-A-Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Lorena Saiz & Universidad de Murcia, 2006. "Do european business cycles look like one $\_?$," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 175, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Marco Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," IMF Working Papers 03/27, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band pass filter," Working Paper 9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band Pass Filter," NBER Working Papers 7257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. James Mitchell & Michael Massmann, 2004. "Reconsidering the evidence: are Eurozone business cycles converging?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 67, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    Other versions:
  12. Wynne, Mark A & Koo, Jahyeong, 2000. "Business Cycles under Monetary Union: A Comparison of the EU and US," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(267), pages 347-74, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Croux, Christophe & Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "A Measure of Comovement for Economic Variables: Theory and Empirics," CEPR Discussion Papers 2339, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. repec:rus:hseeco:123092 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "The European business cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-44, January.
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  16. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2006. "Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1687-1706. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Jean Imbs, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," IMF Working Papers 03/81, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Carlo Altavilla, 2004. "Do EMU Members Share the Same Business Cycle?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(5), pages 869-896, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. C. John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 2000. "Concordance in Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 00/37, International Monetary Fund.
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alexandra Ferreira Lopes & Álvaro M. Pina, 2008. "Business Cycles, Core and Periphery in Monetary Unions: Comparing Europe and North America," Working Papers 2008/21, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. João Loureiro & Manuel M. F. Martins & Ana Paula Ribeiro, 2009. "Cape Verde: The Case for Euroization," FEP Working Papers 317, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto. [Downloadable!]
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