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Regional business cycles in Germany - Part 1: The data situation

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  • Beate Schirwitz
  • Christian Seiler
  • Klaus Wohlrabe

Abstract

Regional business cycles are increasingly gaining importance, but there has been no coherent description and analysis of regional business cycles for the 16 federal states. In a three-part article in ifo Schnelldienst the authors describe how regional business cycles can be defined in Germany and examine the extent to which regional business-cycle trend converge over time. The first article describes the data situation in the various federal states. Because there is no monthly breakdown of GDP figures in the federal states, it is possible to use monthly turnover in manufacturing as approximately representative of the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regional business cycles in Germany - Part 1: The data situation," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(13), pages 18-24, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:62:y:2009:i:13:p:18-24
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "The Ifo Business-Cycle Clock: A precision instrument for the analysis of the economy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(23), pages 16-24, December.
    2. Harm Bandholz & Michael Funke, 2003. "Die Konstruktion und Schätzung eines Frühindikators für die Konjunkturentwicklung in der Freien und Hansestadt Hamburg," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20305, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Vierteljährliche volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnungen für Sachsen mit Hilfe temporaler Disaggregation," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(04), pages 24-36, 08.
    4. Christian Seiler, 2009. "Prediction Qualities of the Ifo Indicators on a Temporal Disaggregated German GDP," ifo Working Paper Series 67, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    5. Christian Dreger & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2007. "Prognosen der regionalen Konjunkturentwicklung," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(4), pages 47-55.
    6. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    7. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Stefan Kooths & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2008. "Konjunkturprognosen für Bundesländer setzen Verbesserung der Datensituation voraus," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 75(24), pages 318-325.
    8. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Vierteljährliche Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnungen für Sachsen : Ergebnisse für das erste Quartal," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(04), pages 12-16, 08.
    9. Ludwig, Udo, 2003. "Das IWH-Konjunkturbarometer Ostdeutschland," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 9(16), pages 471-472.
    10. Erich Langmantel, 1999. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima als Indikator für die Prognose des Bruttoinlandsprodukts," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(16-17), pages 16-21, October.
    11. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Ifo capacity utilisation – a coincident indicator for business activity in German manufacturing," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(16), pages 15-23, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lehmann Robert & Wohlrabe Klaus, 2015. "Forecasting GDP at the Regional Level with Many Predictors," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 226-254, May.
    2. Wenzel, Lars & Wolf, André, 2013. "Short-term forecasting with business surveys: Evidence for German IHK data at federal state level," HWWI Research Papers 140, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    3. Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly, 2012. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Österreich," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 85(11), pages 833-848, November.
    4. Jan Kluge, 2011. "Wachstum und Beschäftigung am Wirtschaftsstandort Dresden – Warum wächst Dresden langsamer als der Rest Sachsens?," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 18(05), pages 11-19, October.
    5. Jan Kluge & Anna Montén & Wolfgang Nagl & Beate Schirwitz & Marcel Thum, 2012. "Wachstum und Beschäftigung am Wirtschaftsstandort Dresden," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 64.
    6. Gießler Stefan & Heinisch Katja & Holtemöller Oliver, 2021. "(Since When) Are East and West German Business Cycles Synchronised?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 241(1), pages 1-28, February.
    7. Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regional business cycles in Germany - the dating problem," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(14), pages 24-31, July.
    8. Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regional business cycles in Germany – convergence," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(15), pages 23-32, August.

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    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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