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Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Ein Präzisionswerk zur Analyse der Wirtschaft

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Author Info

  • Klaus Abberger
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

    ()

Abstract

Das ifo Geschäftsklima, der wichtigste Indikator für die Konjunktur in Deutschland, ist als Mittelwert der beiden Komponenten »Geschäftslage« und »Geschäftserwartungen für die nächsten sechs Monate« definiert. 1993 wurde vom ifo Institut der zyklische Zusammenhang zwischen den beiden Komponenten des Geschäftsklimas erstmals in einem Vier-Quadranten-Konjunkturphasenschema dargestellt: die ifo Konjunkturuhr. Anders als beim üblichen Entwicklungsmuster von Indikatoren auf der Zeitachse bewegt sich die Konjunktur – visualisiert als Lage-Erwartungsgraph – in diesem Diagramm kreisförmig im Uhrzeigersinn, weil der Erwartungsindikator dem Geschäftslageindikator vorauseilt. Dieser Beitrag zeigt die wichtigsten Eigenschaften der ifo Konjunkturuhr auf.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 61 (2008)
Issue (Month): 23 (December)
Pages: 16-24

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:61:y:2008:i:23:p:16-24

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Related research

Keywords: Konjunktur; Theorie; Geschäftsklima; Konjunkturindikator;

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References

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  1. Klaus Abberger, 2005. "Another Look at the Ifo Business Cycle Clock," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,CIRET, vol. 2005(3), pages 431-443.
  2. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Die ifo Kapazitätsauslastung - ein gleichlaufender Indikator der deutschen Industriekonjunktur," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(16), pages 15-23, 08.
  3. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November.
  4. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima: Ein zuverlässiger Frühindikator," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(05), pages 25-30, 03.
  5. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Vierteljährliche volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnungen für Sachsen mit Hilfe temporaler Disaggregation," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(04), pages 24-36, 08.
  6. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Detrending and Business Cycle Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers 782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Klaus Abberger & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2006. "Einige Prognoseeigenschaften des ifo Geschäftsklimas - Ein Überblick über die neuere wissenschaftliche Literatur," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(22), pages 19-26, November.
  8. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Willi Leibfritz, 1993. "Westdeutsche Wirtschaft : wie tief ist die Rezession?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 46(07), pages 10-15, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil I: Die Datenlage," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(13), pages 18-24, 07.
  2. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Zirkulare Korrelation mit dem Bruttoinlandsprodukt," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(05), pages 32-43, 03.
  3. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "The Ifo Business Cycle Clock: Circular Correlation with the Real GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 3179, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima und die deutsche Konjunktur," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(18), pages 17-21, October.
  5. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Drei Monitorsysteme zur Analyse der sächsischen Industriekonjunktur," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(06), pages 33-39, December.
  6. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Zirkulare Korrelation mit dem realen Bruttoinlandsprodukt," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 179-201, December.

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