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Short-term industry forecasting on basis of results of the Ifo Business Survey

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  • Georg Goldrian

Abstract

The results of the Ifo Business Survey are widely regarded as early indicators for the German economy. The assessments of the business conditions has a publication lead over the official statistics of six weeks. The business expectations point three to six months into the future. If one uses the survey results in models, with or without data from the official statistics, one can reliably forecast the short-term economic development of various aspects of the economy, such as economic activity at the industry level.

Suggested Citation

  • Georg Goldrian, 2003. "Short-term industry forecasting on basis of results of the Ifo Business Survey," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(08), pages 31-33, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:56:y:2003:i:08:p:31-33
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methods of business cycle forecasting," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Georg Goldrian, 2003. "The informative value of the results of the Ifo Business Survey at the regional level," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(11), pages 30-33, June.
    2. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
    3. Georg Goldrian, 2004. "A leading indicator for the development of the gross domestic product," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(07), pages 41-43, April.

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    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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