IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/vhsuwp/2007_069.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Kurzfristige Wachstumseffekte von Naturkatastrophen

Author

Listed:
  • Berlemann, Michael

    (Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg)

  • Vogt, Gerit

    (ifo Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung, Niederlassung Dresden)

Abstract

Die Haeufigkeit von Naturkatastrophen hat in den letzten Jahrzehnten deutlich zugenommen. Vor diesem Hintergrund gewinnt die Frage an Bedeutung, welche oekonomischen Konsequenzen mit dem Auftreten von Naturkatastrophen verbunden sind. In der Literatur werden sowohl Argumente fuer positive als auch negative Wachstumseffekte diskutiert. In diesem Aufsatz wird mit Hilfe von oekonometrischen Zeitreihenmodellen untersucht, inwieweit sich die Hochwasserkatastrophe vom August 2002 kurzfristig auf das Wirtschaftswachstum in Sachsen ausgewirkt hat. Den Ergebnissen zufolge ueberwogen die positiven Wachstumseffekte. Ohne die Flutkatastrophe waere das Wachstum des saechsischen Bruttoinlandsproduktes in den Jahren 2002, 2003 und 2004 vermutlich um 0,6, 1,8 beziehungsweise 0,5 Prozentpunkte niedriger ausgefallen.

Suggested Citation

  • Berlemann, Michael & Vogt, Gerit, 2007. "Kurzfristige Wachstumseffekte von Naturkatastrophen," Working Paper 69/2007, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:vhsuwp:2007_069
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hsu-hh.de/fgvwl/index_ZkK8kjKNyI8vKhM3.html
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Skidmore & Hideki Toya, 2002. "Do Natural Disasters Promote Long-Run Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 664-687, October.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "The introduction of the previous-year price basis in German National Accounts: Consequences for business-cycle analysis," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(05), pages 19-27, March.
    3. Ludwig, Udo & Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich, 2002. "Die Hochwasserkatastrophe und das Sozialprodukt in Deutschland," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 8(12), pages 353-356.
    4. Brand, Claus & Reimers, Hans-Eggert & Seitz, Franz, 2003. "Forecasting real GDP: what role for narrow money?," Working Paper Series 254, European Central Bank.
    5. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    6. P. C. D. Milly & R. T. Wetherald & K. A. Dunne & T. L. Delworth, 2002. "Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 415(6871), pages 514-517, January.
    7. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methods of business cycle forecasting," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Heike Auerswald & Robert Lehmann, 2011. "Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf das Verarbeitende Gewerbe – Ergebnisse einer Unternehmensbefragung," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 18(02), pages 16-22, April.
    2. Michael Berlemann & Daniela Wenzel, 2018. "Precipitation and Economic Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 7258, CESifo.
    3. Jahn, Malte, 2014. "A spatial computable general equilibrium model for the analysis of regional climate change impacts and adaptation policies," HWWI Research Papers 154, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    4. Jahn, Malte, 2013. "Economics of extreme weather events in cities: Terminology and regional impact models," HWWI Research Papers 143, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    5. Michael Berlemann & Max Steinhardt & Jascha Tutt, 2015. "Do Natural Disasters Stimulate Individual Saving? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in a Highly Developed Country," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 763, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    6. Ferdinand Fichtner & Simon Junker & Guido Baldi & Jacek Bednarz & Kerstin Bernoth & Franziska Bremus & Karl Brenke & Christian Dreger & Hella Engerer & Christoph Große Steffen & Hendrik Hagedorn & Pia, 2013. "Sommergrundlinien 2013," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(25), pages 3-44.
    7. Jürgen Michels & Gunther Schnabl & Helmut Schleweis & Dominik Löber & Michael Menhart & Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2019. "Gewinner und Verlierer in der Welt dauerhafter Niedrigzinsen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(20), pages 03-23, October.
    8. Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36.
    9. Mona Förtsch & Xenia Frei & Anna Kremer & Lisa-Marie Müller, 2021. "The Resilience of German Counties to the Natural Disaster Storm "Lothar”," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 28(02), pages 09-14, April.
    10. Berlemann, Michael, 2015. "Hurricane Risk, Happiness and Life Satisfaction. Some Empirical Evidence on the Indirect Effects of Natural Disasters," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113073, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Roland Döhrn & György Barabas & Heinz Gebhardt & Tobias Kitlinski & Martin Micheli & Simeon Vosen & Lina Zwick, 2013. "Deutsche Konjunktur bleibt aufwärts gerichtet," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 10, 06.
    12. Wenzel, Lars & Wolf, André, 2013. "Protection against major catastrophes: An economic perspective," HWWI Research Papers 137, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    13. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Kitlinski, Tobias & Micheli, Martin & Vosen, Simeon & Zwick, Lina, 2013. "Deutsche Konjunktur bleibt aufwärts gerichtet," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 64(2), pages 5-14.
    14. Christin Hoffmann & Gunter Stephan, 2018. "Regional Flood Impacts And Adaptation In A Federal Setting: A Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Analysis For Switzerland," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(02), pages 1-36, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Drechsel, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2010. "Should We Trust in Leading Indicators? Evidence from the Recent Recession," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2010, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Fujiki, Hiroshi & Hsiao, Cheng, 2015. "Disentangling the effects of multiple treatments—Measuring the net economic impact of the 1995 great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 66-73.
    3. Daniela Wenzel, 2021. "Droughts and corruption," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 189(1), pages 3-29, October.
    4. Berlemann, Michael, 2015. "Hurricane Risk, Happiness and Life Satisfaction. Some Empirical Evidence on the Indirect Effects of Natural Disasters," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113073, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Stephan Sauer & Jan‐Egbert Sturm, 2007. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand European Central Bank Monetary Policy," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(3), pages 375-398, August.
    6. F. Zhou & W.J.W. Botzen, 2017. "The Impact of Natural Disasters on Firm Growth in Vietnam:: Interaction with Financial Constraints," Working Papers 17-20, Utrecht School of Economics.
    7. Solomon M. Hsiang & Amir S. Jina, 2014. "The Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence From 6,700 Cyclones," NBER Working Papers 20352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Michael Berlemann & Gerit Vogt, 2007. ""Timing ist alles" : Konsequenzen der Entscheidung über die Ziel-1-Fördergebiete der Europäischen Kohäsions- und Strukturpolitik vom Dezember 2005 für den Freistaat Sachsen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(06), pages .3-11, December.
    9. Augustus J. Panton, 2020. "Climate hysteresis and monetary policy," CAMA Working Papers 2020-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1110, CESifo.
    11. Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36.
    12. Daniel Grenouilleau, 2004. "A sorted leading indicators dynamic (SLID) factor model for short-run euro-area GDP forecasting," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 219, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    13. Drechsel, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2012. "The performance of short-term forecasts of the German economy before and during the 2008/2009 recession," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 428-445.
    14. Berlemann, Michael & Wenzel, Daniela, 2018. "Hurricanes, economic growth and transmission channels," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 231-247.
    15. Andreas Brunhart, 2013. "Der Klein(st)staat Liechtenstein und seine grossen Nachbarländer: Eine wachstums- und konjunkturanalytische Gegenüberstellung," Arbeitspapiere 44, Liechtenstein-Institut.
    16. Klaus Abberger & Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse : ausgewählte methodische Aufsätze aus dem ifo Schnelldienst," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 33, October.
    17. Wenzel, Daniela, 2018. "Droughts and Corruption," Working Paper 181/2018, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
    18. Alex Ilek & Tanya Suchoy & Nir Klein, 2006. "Estimating the premium implicit in the yields of Treasury Bills," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 4(2), pages 53-83.
    19. Chang, Eric C. & Cheng, Joseph W. & Khorana, Ajay, 2000. "An examination of herd behavior in equity markets: An international perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1651-1679, October.
    20. Narayan, Seema & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Tobing, Lutzardo, 2021. "Has tourism influenced Indonesia’s current account?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 225-237.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Naturkatastrophen; Wirtschaftswachstum; Zeitreihenmodelle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:vhsuwp:2007_069. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Bekcmann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/egbwhde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.