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Methoden der Konjunkturprognose

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

    ()

  • Jan-Egbert Sturm

Abstract

Im Sommer und zum Jahresende veröffentlicht das ifo Institut seine Konjunkturprognosen für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Im Frühjahr und im Herbst nimmt es an der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose der sechs führenden Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute teil. Der Beitrag beschreibt, welche makroökonomischen Aggregate prognostiziert werden und welche Methoden dabei angewandt werden. Im Einzelnen werden die ökonometrische Prognose, der Indikatoransatz und das iterativ-analytische Verfahren vorgestellt. Außerdem wird auf die besonderen Spezifika der ifo Konjunkturprognose eingegangen.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 56 (2003)
Issue (Month): 04 (02)
Pages: 7-23

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:56:y:2003:i:04:p:7-23

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Keywords: Konjunkturprognose; Wissenschaftliche Methode;

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References

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1998. "Praktische Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 51(28), pages 07-19, October.
  2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  3. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  4. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1999. "Aus dem Instrumentenkasten der Konjunkturanalyse : Veränderungen im Vergleich," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(27), pages 11-19, October.
  5. Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Fitting autoregressive models for prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 243-247, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Michael Berlemann & Gerit Vogt, 2007. "Kurzfristige Wachstumseffekte von Naturkatastrophen," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 52, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  2. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1110, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Michael Groemling, 2005. "Konjunkturprognosen – Verfahren, Erfolgskontrolle und Prognosefehler," Departmental Discussion Papers 123, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  4. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2004: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(03), pages 26-30, 02.
  5. Joachim Ragnitz & Stefan Arent & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Beate Schirwitz & Johannes Steinbrecher & Gerit Vogt & Björn Ziegenbalg, 2010. "Methodenexpertise zur Analyse der Auswirkungen der internationalen Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise auf die Wirtschaft im Land Brandenburg : Gutachten im Auftrag des Ministeriums für Wirtschaft des Landes," ifo Dresden Studien, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 53, October.
  6. Roland Doehrn & Christoph M. Schmidt, 2011. "Information or Institution? On the Determinants of Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 231(1), pages 9-27, February.
  7. Georg Goldrian, 2003. "Kurzfristige Branchenprognosen auf Basis von Ergebnissen des ifo Konjunkturtests," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(08), pages 31-33, 04.
  8. Klaus Abberger & Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse : ausgewählte methodische Aufsätze aus dem ifo Schnelldienst," ifo Forschungsberichte, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 33, 9.
  9. Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36, July.
  10. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2012. "Konjunkturprognosen heute – Möglichkeiten und Probleme," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 19(05), pages 29-37, October.
  11. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2007. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand European Central Bank Monetary Policy," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8, pages 375-398, 08.
  12. Anna Billharz & Steffen Elstner & Marcus Jüppner, 2012. "Methoden der ifo Kurzfristprognose am Beispiel der Ausrüstungsinvestitionen," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(21), pages 24-33, November.
  13. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Prognosestopp – ja oder nein?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(24), pages 83, December.
  14. Charles Goodhart, 2004. "The Monetary Policy Committee's reaction function: an exercise in estimation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24708, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  15. Steffen Elstner & Christian Grimme & Ulrich Haskamp, 2013. "Das ifo Exportklima – ein Frühindikator für die deutsche Exportprognose," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(04), pages 36-43, 03.
  16. Oliver Hülsewig & Johannes Mayr & Dirk Ulbricht, 2007. "Zur Evaluierung von VAR-Prognosen," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(07), pages 19-25, 04.
  17. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Zur Einführung der Vorjahrespreisbasis in der deutschen Statistik: Konsequenzen für die Konjunkturanalyse," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(05), pages 19-27, 03.
  18. Gerit Vogt, 2010. "Zur Güte der ifo Dresden Konjunkturprognosen," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(01), pages 28-32, 02.
  19. Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2004. "Do Ifo Indicators Help Explain Revisions in German Industrial Production?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1205, CESifo Group Munich.
  20. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima und Wendepunkte der deutschen Konjunktur," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(03), pages 26-31, 02.

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