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Methoden der Konjunkturprognose

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Author Info
Wolfgang Nierhaus ()
Jan-Egbert Sturm

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Abstract

Im Sommer und zum Jahresende veröffentlicht das ifo Institut seine Konjunkturprognosen für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Im Frühjahr und im Herbst nimmt es an der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose der sechs führenden Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute teil. Der Beitrag beschreibt, welche makroökonomischen Aggregate prognostiziert werden und welche Methoden dabei angewandt werden. Im Einzelnen werden die ökonometrische Prognose, der Indikatoransatz und das iterativ-analytische Verfahren vorgestellt. Außerdem wird auf die besonderen Spezifika der ifo Konjunkturprognose eingegangen.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 56 (2003)
Issue (Month): 04 (03)
Pages: 7-23
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:56:y:2003:i:04:p:7-23

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Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
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Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
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Related research
Keywords: Konjunkturprognose; Wissenschaftliche Methode;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael Groemling, 2005. "Konjunkturprognosen – Verfahren, Erfolgskontrolle und Prognosefehler," Departmental Discussion Papers 123, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Michael Berlemann & Gerit Vogt, 2007. "Kurzfristige Wachstumseffekte von Naturkatastrophen," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 52, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2004. "Do Ifo Indicators Help Explain Revisions in German Industrial Production?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  4. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-12.

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