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Zur Einführung der Vorjahrespreisbasis in der deutschen Statistik: Konsequenzen für die Konjunkturanalyse

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

    ()

Abstract

Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP), der wichtigste Indikator für Konjunktur und Wirtschaftswachstum, wurde bisher in den deutschen Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen (VGR) in konstanten Preisen eines Basisjahres nachgewiesen (Festpreisbasis). Auf der Grundlage der Entscheidung der EU-Kommission vom 30. November 1998 wird bei der nächsten anstehenden großen VGR-Revision in diesem Frühjahr bei der BIP-Schätzung nun das Konzept der Vorjahrespreisbasis eingeführt. Dieser Beitrag informiert über das neue Rechenverfahren, den Grund des Systemwechsels und über einige Konsequenzen der neuen Volumenrechnung für die Konjunkturanalyse.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 58 (2005)
Issue (Month): 05 (03)
Pages: 19-27

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:58:y:2005:i:05:p:19-27

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Keywords: Wirtschaftswachstum; Konjunktur; Sozialprodukt; Konjunkturindikator; Konjunkturprognose; Preis; Deutschland;

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References

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  1. Karl Whelan, 2000. "A guide to the use of chain aggregated NIPA data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2004. "Wirtschaftswachstum in den VGR: Zur Einführung der Vorjahrespreisbasis in der deutschen Statistik," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(05), pages 28-34, 03.
  3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2001. "Wirtschaftswachstum in den Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen: Ein Vergleich Deutschland - USA," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(03), pages 41-51, 03.
  4. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2004. "Zur Einführung der Vorjahrespreisbasis in der deutschen Statistik: Besonderheiten der Quartalsrechnung," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(15), pages 14-21, 08.
  5. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, 02.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Berlemann, Michael & Vogt, Gerit, 2007. "Kurzfristige Wachstumseffekte von Naturkatastrophen," Working Paper 69/2007, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
  2. Wolf-Dietmar Speich, 2006. "Revision 2005 in den regionalen Gesamtrechnungen," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(02), pages 33-41, 04.
  3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2006. "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion und Preisniveau: Volumenrechnungen im Vergleich," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(14), pages 13-18, 07.
  4. Klaus Abberger & Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse : ausgewählte methodische Aufsätze aus dem ifo Schnelldienst," ifo Forschungsberichte, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 33, October.
  5. Michael Berlemann & Beate Grundig & Beate Schirwitz & Gerit Vogt, 2005. "Entwicklung von Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in Sachsen und Ostdeutschland 2005/2006," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(04), pages 3-10, 08.
  6. Grömling, Michael, 2005. "Sinn und Unsinn von Quoten auf Basis von preisbereinigten Werten," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 50, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
  7. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2006. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2005: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(02), pages 37-43, 01.
  8. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Vorjahrespreisbasis und Chain-Linking in den VGR: Das Wichtigste der neuen Volumenrechnung," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(15), pages 29-35, 08.
  9. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Preisbereinigtes Bruttoinlandsprodukt: Zur Veröffentlichungspraxis im Gemeinschaftsgutachten," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(09), pages 15-18, 05.
  10. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Vorjahrespreisbasis: Rechenregeln für die Aggregation," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(22), pages 12-16, November.

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