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Sinn und Unsinn von Quoten auf Basis von preisbereinigten Werten


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  • Grömling, Michael
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    Eine wesentliche Neuerung der Revision der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen vom April 2005 ist die Einführung eines neuen Deflationierungsverfahrens. Durch den Übergang von der Festpreisbasis auf eine Vorjahrespreisbasis mit Verkettung liegt keine Additivität der preisbereinigten Komponenten eines Aggregats mehr vor. Dadurch können keine langen Zeitreihen von Quoten auf Basis preisbereinigter Werte berechnet werden. Für ökonomische Analysen zum sektoralen Strukturwandel und zur intersektoralen Arbeitsteilung fehlt damit ein ergänzendes und relativierendes Maß. -- A major change of the 2005 revision of German national accounts is the introduction of a new price adjustment method. The former fixed price base (last 1995 prices) has been replaced by an annually changing price base (previous year's prices) with chain linking. But the chain-linked levels in absolute terms (billion Euro) are not additive. The sum of chain-linked sub aggregates (e.g. real gross value added by industries) differs from the value of the chain-linked total aggregate (e.g. real GDP). Thus it is no longer possible to calculate time series of ratios based on deflated values. Economic analysis of structural change or of the inter-sector division of labor thus loses a useful complementary measurement tool.

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    Paper provided by University of Rostock, Institute of Economics in its series Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory with number 50.

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    Date of creation: 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:roswps:50

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    1. Ramana Ramaswamy & Bob Rowthorn, 1997. "Deindustrialization," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 97/42, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Zur Einführung der Vorjahrespreisbasis in der deutschen Statistik: Konsequenzen für die Konjunkturanalyse," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(05), pages 19-27, 03.
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