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Kurzfristige Wachstumseffekte von Naturkatastrophen

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Author Info
Michael Berlemann ()
Gerit Vogt

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Abstract

Die Häufigkeit von Naturkatastrophen hat in den letzten Jahrzehnten deutlich zugenommen.Vor diesem Hintergrund gewinnt die Frage an Bedeutung, welche ökonomischenKonsequenzen mit dem Auftreten von Naturkatastrophen verbunden sind. In derLiteratur werden sowohl Argumente für positive als auch negative Wachstumseffektediskutiert. In diesem Aufsatz wird mit Hilfe von ökonometrischen Zeitreihenmodellenuntersucht, inwieweit sich die Hochwasserkatastrophe vom August 2002 kurzfristig aufdas Wirtschaftswachstum in Sachsen ausgewirkt hat. Den Ergebnissen zufolge überwogendie positiven Wachstumseffekte. Ohne die Flutkatastrophe wäre das Wachstum dessächsischen Bruttoinlandsproduktes in den Jahren 2002, 2003 und 2004 vermutlich um0,6, 1,8 beziehungsweise 0,5 Prozentpunkte niedriger ausgefallen.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its series Ifo Working Paper Series with number Ifo Working Paper No. 52.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_52

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Related research
Keywords: Naturkatastrophen; Wirtschaftswachstum; Zeitreihenmodelle;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation
Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Claus Brand & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Franz Seitz, 2003. "Forecasting real GDP: What role for narrow money?," Working Paper Series 254, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Mark Skidmore & Hideki Toya, 2002. "Do Natural Disasters Promote Long-Run Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 664-687, October.
  3. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, 03.
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-28.


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