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Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2005: Prognose und Wirklichkeit

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

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Abstract

Das ifo Institut beleuchtet seit Jahren kritisch die Güte der eigenen Konjunkturprognosen und diskutiert die Gründe für aufgetretene Differenzen zwischen Prognose und Wirklichkeit. Im Jahr 2005 ist die Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Deutschland vom ifo Institut von der Grundtendenz her zutreffend prognostiziert worden. Wie erwartet ist es im konjunkturellen Verlauf zu einer beschleunigten Zunahme der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktion gekommen, und auch die Tempoverlangsamung in der Jahresdurchschnittsbetrachtung wurde von der Tendenz zutreffend eingeschätzt.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-ifo_Schnelldienst/zs-sd-2006/ifosd_2006_2_4.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 59 (2006)
Issue (Month): 02 (01)
Pages: 37-43

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:59:y:2006:i:02:p:37-43

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Keywords: Konjunktur; Konjunkturprognose; Entwicklung; Deutschland;

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References

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  1. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 143-44, April.
  2. Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute, 2005. "Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Frühjahr 2005," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(08), pages 03-57, 04.
  3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1999. "Aus dem Instrumentenkasten der Konjunkturanalyse : Veränderungen im Vergleich," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(27), pages 11-19, October.
  4. Corporate author, 2005. "Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Frühjahr 2005," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 72(17), pages 259-317.
  5. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Zur Einführung der Vorjahrespreisbasis in der deutschen Statistik: Konsequenzen für die Konjunkturanalyse," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(05), pages 19-27, 03.
  6. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2001. "Konjunkturprognosen und Prognoserisiko," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(16), pages 17-21, October.
  7. Granger, Clive W J, 1996. "Can We Improve the Perceived Quality of Economic Forecasts?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 455-73, Sept.-Oct.
  8. Arbeitsgemeinschaft Deutscher Wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute (Ed.), 2005. "Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Frühjahr 2005," HWWA Reports 254, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  9. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 121-35, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36.
  2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2006: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(02), pages 23-28, 01.

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