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Economic Situation 2011: Forecast and Reality

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

This article discusses the reasons for the discrepancies between forecasts and reality over the past year. According to the actual results published on 11 January 2012, real GDP increased by 3.0% in 2011. This meant that the pace of economic growth versus 2010 slowed less than the Ifo Institute expected. This forecasting error is primarily due to differences in forecast and actual economic trends. Unexpectedly, the economic upturn continued to gather pace fast in Germany in the first quarter of 2011. The massive weather-related production losses of December 2010 were swiftly recovered after the New Year. Moreover, private consumption continued to rise, while foreign trade also contributed positively to growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2012. "Economic Situation 2011: Forecast and Reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(02), pages 22-27, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:65:y:2012:i:02:p:22-27
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2012_2_5.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kai Carstensen & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Oliver Hülsewig & Klaus Abberger & Christian Breuer & Steffen Elstner & Steffen Henzel & Johannes Mayr & Wolfgang Meister & Georg Paula & Anna Wolf & Timo Wollmers, 2009. "Ifo Economic Forecast 2009/2010: Downturn continues," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(12), pages 11-57, June.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2006. "Economic activity 2005: forecasting and reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(02), pages 37-43, January.
    3. Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Ina Becker & Steffen Henzel & Oliver Hülsewig & Erich Langmantel & Johannes Mayr & Wolfgang Meister & Monika Ruschinski & Dirk Ulbricht & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2006. "Ifo Economic Forecast 2006/2007: The upswing continues," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(12), pages 19-54, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Steffen Henzel & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2014. "Evaluation der ifo Konjunkturprognosen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(17), pages 43-45, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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