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Business forecasts and forecasting risks

Author

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

The recent revision of forecasts for Germany and the world economy have caused some irritation and around criticism of the forecasts. misunderstanding regarding the goal of economic forecasts and their risks. The goal of a forecast is to estimate as accurately as possible the direction and strength of the economy and the cyclical turning points. Since the conditions that the forecast is based on change, forecasts are subject to risks. For this reason it is necessary to revise the forecasts in correspondence with the change in conditions. In light of the large error potential and the numerous risks, the forecasts of the Ifo Institute have been very accurate when compared to the actual economic development in 1991 to 1999.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2001. "Business forecasts and forecasting risks," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(16), pages 17-21, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:54:y:2001:i:16:p:17-21
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2001_16_3.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2001. "Die Weltkonjunktur und die deutsche Wirtschaft," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(13), pages 18-28, September.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1998. "Praktische Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 51(28), pages 07-19, October.
    3. Willi Leibfritz & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Wolfgang Meister, 2001. "Wirtschaftsperspektiven 2001/2002 und Entwicklung in Ostdeutschland," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 8(04), pages 8-32, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Economic activity 2004: Forecasting and reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(03), pages 26-30, February.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2003. "Economy economic activity 2002: Forecasting and reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(02), pages 20-23, January.
    3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2004. "Economy economic activity 2003: Forecasting and reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(03), pages 26-29, February.
    4. Steffen Henzel & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2014. "Evaluation der ifo Konjunkturprognosen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(17), pages 43-45, September.
    5. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2006. "Economic activity 2005: forecasting and reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(02), pages 37-43, January.
    6. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2002. "German economy 2001: Forecast and reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(02), pages 32-34, January.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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