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Das ifo Exportklima – ein Frühindikator für die deutsche Exportprognose

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  • Steffen Elstner
  • Christian Grimme

    ()

  • Ulrich Haskamp

Abstract

In dieser Studie wird die Neuberechnung des ifo Exportklimas, der Indikator für die deutschen Exporte, vorgestellt. Das Exportklima besteht aus den Bestandteilen Weltwirtschaftsklima und preisliche Wettbewerbsfähigkeit. Bei Ersterem werden in der neuen Konstruktionsweise deutlich mehr Länder berücksichtigt, um der fortschreitenden Diversifikation des deutschen Exportes gerecht zu werden. Zudem geht das Weltwirtschaftsklima mit einem höheren Gewicht als zuvor in das Exportklima ein, da der Einfluss der preislichen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit auf die Nachfrage nach deutschen Exportgütern abgenommen hat.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-ifo_Schnelldienst/zs-sd-2013/zs-sd-2013-04/ifosd_2013_04_5.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 66 (2013)
Issue (Month): 04 (03)
Pages: 36-43

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:66:y:2013:i:04:p:36-43

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Related research

Keywords: Export; Wirtschaftslage; Konjunktur; Deutschland;

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References

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  1. Frederick L. Joutz & Stephan Danninger, 2007. "What Explains Germany's Rebounding Export Market Share?," IMF Working Papers 07/24, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Kilian, Lutz & Rebucci, Alessandro & Spatafora, Nikola, 2007. "Oil Shocks and External Balances," CEPR Discussion Papers 6303, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Nils Jannsen & Julia Richter, 2012. "Kapazitätsauslastung im Ausland als Indikator für die deutschen Investitionsgüterexporte," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer, vol. 92(12), pages 833-837, December.
  4. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, 02.
  5. Steffen Elstner & Christian Grimme & Thomas Siemsen, 2010. "Die größten aufstrebenden Märkte für deutsche Exporte liegen in Asien und Osteuropa," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(16), pages 22-25, 08.
  6. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Schnatz, Bernd, 2007. "Explaining and forecasting euro area exports: which competitiveness indicator performs best?," Working Paper Series 0833, European Central Bank.
  7. Stahn, Kerstin, 2006. "Has the impact of key determinants of German exports changed? Results from estimations of Germany's intra euro-area and extra euro-area exports," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,07, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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Cited by:
  1. Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima und die deutsche Konjunktur," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(18), pages 17-21, October.

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