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Ein Frühindikator für die Entwicklung des Bruttoinlandsprodukts

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  • Georg Goldrian
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    Abstract

    2001 wurde vom ifo Institut ein synthetischer Frühindikator für das trendbereinigte_reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt vorgestellt, der sich ausschließlich aus qualitativen Zeitreihen zusammensetzt. Es handelt sich dabei um Reihen aus dem ifo Konjunkturtest und dem GfK Konsumklima. Hier wird eine neue Variante vorgestellt, in die die kurzfristigen Zinsen miteinbezogen sind. Dieser gemischte synthetische Indikator weist bei einem Vorlauf von durchschnittlich vier Monaten eine etwas bessere konjunkturelle Übereinstimmung mit der Referenzreihe auf. Damit lässt sich ein noch leistungsfähigerer Frühindikator für die Jahreswachstumsraten des realen BIP entwickeln.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

    Volume (Year): 57 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 07 (04)
    Pages: 41-43

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    Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:57:y:2004:i:07:p:41-43

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    Related research

    Keywords: Konjunkturindikator; Sozialprodukt; Deutschland;

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    1. Georg Goldrian, 2003. "Kurzfristige Branchenprognosen auf Basis von Ergebnissen des ifo Konjunkturtests," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(08), pages 31-33, 04.
    2. Georg Goldrian, 2001. "Aus Befragungsdaten zusammengesetzte Frühindikatoren - Adäquate Bauweise und prognostische Aussagekraft," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(22), pages 32-36, December.
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