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Zur Güte der ifo Dresden Konjunkturprognosen


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  • Gerit Vogt


Die Dresdner Niederlassung des ifo Instituts veröffentlicht seit einigen Jahren jeweils im Sommer und zum Jahresende Prognosen zur gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung in Sachsen und in den ostdeutschen Bundesländern insgesamt. Im Mittelpunkt des vorliegenden Beitrags stehen die bisherigen Erfahrungen mit der Treffgenauigkeit dieser Prognosen. Die Evaluierung der Treffgenauigkeit erfolgt anhand von statistischen Maßen und fokussiert auf das Bruttoinlandsprodukt als zentrale Konjunktur- und Prognosevariable. Alles in allem deuten die Maße darauf hin, dass die ifo Dresden Konjunkturprognosen in der Vergangenheit erfolgreich dazu beigetragen haben, die Unsicherheit über die gesamtwirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Ostdeutschland und Sachsen zu vermindern.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Dresden berichtet.

Volume (Year): 17 (2010)
Issue (Month): 01 (02)
Pages: 28-32

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:17:y:2010:i:01:p:28-32

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Keywords: Regionale Entwicklung; Prognoseverfahren; Konjunkturindikator;

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  1. Michael Berlemann & Beate Grundig & Gerit Vogt, 2005. "Entwicklung von Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in Sachsen und Ostdeutschland 2004/2005," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(01), pages 3-13, 02.
  2. Osterloh, Steffen, 2006. "Accuracy and properties of German business cycle forecasts," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-87, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  3. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, 02.
  4. Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36, 8.
  5. Sargent, Thomas J. & Wallace, Neil, 1976. "Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 169-183, April.
  6. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2007. "Aufschwung legt Pause ein," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(20), pages 03-58, October.
  7. Joachim Ragnitz & Beate Schirwitz & Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose Ostdeutschland und Sachsen 2008/2009 : Abschwung und Rezession," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(01), pages 3-11, 02.
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