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Impact des allégements de cotisations patronales des bas salaires sur l'emploi. L'apport des modèles macroéconomiques

Author

Listed:
  • Éric Heyer
  • Mathieu Plane

Abstract

In this study, we propose a quantitative evaluation on employment of payroll tax subsidies for low-wage workers with the macroeconomic model of the OFCE emod.fr. We evaluate that this measure creates 500,000 jobs after five years, but induces a cost to public finances. If we were to fund ex post the measure, the impact on employment would be reduced compared to the initial evaluation of 35% to 50% depending on the type of financing used. And if this policy does not result in increased competitiveness on the outside, then the effect on employment is divided by three or seven in the worst case from the initial evaluation. JEL code : C13, C22, E24, E27, J38

Suggested Citation

  • Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2012. "Impact des allégements de cotisations patronales des bas salaires sur l'emploi. L'apport des modèles macroéconomiques," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(7), pages 123-140.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_126_0123
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bruno Ducoudre & Nicolas Yol, 2018. "Evaluation de l'impact du CICE par une méthode," Working Papers hal-03471572, HAL.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    labor costs; competitiveness; employment; France; macroeconometric model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

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