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Estimation de l'impact sur l'emploi non qualifié des mesures de baisse de charges

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  • Pauline Givord
  • Corinne Prost
  • Sophie Audric

Abstract

[eng] An estimation of the effect of the cuts in social contributions on unskilled employment. . This article evaluates the effect of the cuts in social contributions on unskilled employment. In order to describe the evolution of unskilled employment in the eighties, we construct data series, using a precise definition of the unskilled. With a stylised model, where the unskilled employment is substitutable with both capital and skilled employment, we quantify the impact of a fall of the social contributions. We find that this effect on employment would be large. Moreover, the cost of the measure would be high in the short run but much lower in the long run. [fre] Cet article évalue l'impact sur l'emploi non qualifié de la baisse des taux de cotisations employeurs mise en place progressivement depuis 1993. Pour dégager les principales caractéristiques de l'emploi non qualifié depuis le début des années 1980, des données d'emploi par qualification ont été construites, en utilisant une définition précise de l'emploi non qualifié. Une maquette stylisée de l'économie, dans laquelle l'emploi non qualifié est substituable au capital et au travail qualifié, permet ensuite de quantifier l'effet d'une baisse du taux de cotisations employeurs. Les simulations suggèrent que cet effet serait important. En outre, la mesure serait quasiment autofinancée à long terme, et ce malgré un coût ex ante élevé.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 51 (2000)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 513-522

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Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_2000_num_51_3_410532

Note: DOI:10.2307/3503141
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/reco

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Cited by:
  1. Sébastien Doisy & Sandrine Duchêne & Christian Gianella, 2004. "Un modèle d’appariement avec hétérogénéité du facteur travail : un nouvel outil d’évaluation des politiques économiques," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 162(1), pages 1-22.
  2. Mathieu Bunel & Céline Emond & Yannick L'Horty, 2012. "Evaluer les réformes des exonérations générales de cotisations sociales," TEPP Research Report 2012-04, TEPP.
  3. Eric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2012. "Impact des allègements de cotisations patronales des bas salaires sur l'emploi. L'apport des modèles macroéconomiques," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/eo6779thqgm, Sciences Po.
  4. Eichhorst, Werner, 2007. "The Gradual Transformation of Continental European Labor Markets: France and Germany Compared," IZA Discussion Papers 2675, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Paul van den Noord & Chistopher Heady, 2001. "Surveillance of Tax Policies: A Synthesis of Findings in Economic Surveys," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 303, OECD Publishing.
  6. David Spector, 2001. "Emploi : une analyse critique des politiques malthusiennes," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 150(4), pages 13-31.

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