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The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam

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Author Info

  • Thurlow James

    (UNU-WIDER and International Food Policy Research Institute)

  • Tarp Finn

    (UNU-WIDER and University of Copenhagen)

  • McCoy Simon

    (University of Copenhagen)

  • Hai Nguyen Manh

    (Central Institute of Economic Management)

  • Breisinger Clemens

    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

  • Arndt Channing

    (University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

Economic growth in Vietnam was resilient to the global commodity and financial crises, but it is unclear why. Impacts on employment and poverty are also disputed. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to decompose growth and distributional outcomes. Results indicate that the 2008 commodity crisis raised employment and reduced poverty by favoring labor-intensive exports. The 2009 financial crisis reversed these gains and pushed a million workers into unemployment and 3 million people below the poverty line. Overall, the crises and government stimulus package left growth and poverty in Vietnam virtually changed from a baseline (no crises) path.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Journal of Globalization and Development.

Volume (Year): 2 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (August)
Pages: 1-31

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:globdv:v:2:y:2011:i:1:n:6

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Cited by:
  1. Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Engelke, Wilfried & Al-Bataly, Abdulmajeed, 2012. "Managing transition in Yemen: An assessment of the costs of conflict and development scenarios for the future," IFPRI discussion papers 1210, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  2. Laura Kiku Rodriguez-Takeuchi & Katsushi S. Imai, 2011. "Food Price Surges and Poverty in Urban Colombia: New Evidence from Household Survey Data," Discussion Paper Series DP2011-33, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
  3. World Bank & United Nations & European Union & Islamic Development Bank, 2012. "Joint Social and Economic Assessment for the Republic of Yemen," World Bank Other Operational Studies 11920, The World Bank.
  4. Bryan, Elizabeth & De Pinto, Alessandro & Ringler, Claudia & Asuming-Brempong, Samuel & Bendaoud, Luís Artur & Givá, Nicia & Anh, Dao The & Mai, Nguyen Ngoc & Asenso-Okyere, Kwadwo & Sarpong, Da, 2012. "Institutions for agricultural mitigation: Potential and challenges in four countries," CAPRi working papers 107, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  5. World Bank, 2012. "Republic of Yemen - Joint Social and Economic Assessment," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12284, The World Bank.

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