The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam
AbstractEconomic growth in Vietnam was resilient to the global commodity and financial crises, but it is unclear why. Impacts on employment and poverty are also disputed. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to decompose growth and distributional outcomes. Results indicate that the 2008 commodity crisis raised employment and reduced poverty by favoring labor-intensive exports. The 2009 financial crisis reversed these gains and pushed a million workers into unemployment and 3 million people below the poverty line. Overall, the crises and government stimulus package left growth and poverty in Vietnam virtually changed from a baseline (no crises) path.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by De Gruyter in its journal Journal of Globalization and Development.
Volume (Year): 2 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (August)
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Web page: http://www.degruyter.com
Other versions of this item:
- Thurlow, James & Tarp, Finn & McCoy, Simon & Hai, Ngugyen Manh & Breisinger, Clemens & Arndt, Channing, 2010. "The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam," Working Paper Series wp2010-98, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- D5 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
- O24 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
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