IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/worlde/v46y2023i7p2134-2156.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Features and evolution of the ‘Belt and Road’ regional value chain: Complex network analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Yue Pu
  • Yunting Li
  • Jinjin Zhang

Abstract

This paper constructs a regional value chain network based on complex network analysis, and analyses its structural features and dynamic evolution process. The results show that at the macro level, the scales of the domestic trade value‐added (DVA) network and foreign trade value‐added (FVA) network of the ‘Belt and Road’ (B&R) show an expanding pattern over time. Moreover, the core‐periphery analysis shows that the network exhibits a vivid core‐periphery structure. Then, community analysis reveals that the network has prominent characteristics of regional agglomeration. After 2005, the division of communities tended to be stable, and the representative countries of the DVA network and FVA network communities differed. Finally, at the individual level, as for degree centrality and strength centrality, China, Russia and Thailand are all the cores in the DVA network, while India, an emerging economy, shows increases in the breadth and depth of relations and becomes more important. In the FVA network, Singapore and Russia are more significant. As for PageRank centrality, Russia, Singapore, China and India are all the cores in the DVA network and FVA network, but for betweenness centrality, the core countries that play the ‘bridge’ role in the DVA network and FVA network are not unified.

Suggested Citation

  • Yue Pu & Yunting Li & Jinjin Zhang, 2023. "Features and evolution of the ‘Belt and Road’ regional value chain: Complex network analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(7), pages 2134-2156, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:46:y:2023:i:7:p:2134-2156
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.13348
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13348
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/twec.13348?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liang, Xuedong & Yang, Xu & Yan, Fuhai & Li, Zhi, 2020. "Exploring global embodied metal flows in international trade based combination of multi-regional input-output analysis and complex network analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    2. Shuzhong Ma & Mengheng Liu, 2020. "Spatial correlation effect of China's outward foreign direct investment in countries along the One Belt and One Road," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 228-249, May.
    3. Zhen Zhu & Federica Cerina & Alessandro Chessa & Guido Caldarelli & Massimo Riccaboni, 2014. "The Rise of China in the International Trade Network: A Community Core Detection Approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(8), pages 1-8, August.
    4. Giorgio Fagiolo, 2010. "The international-trade network: gravity equations and topological properties," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 5(1), pages 1-25, June.
    5. Richard Baldwin & Javier Lopez-Gonzalez, 2015. "Supply-chain Trade: A Portrait of Global Patterns and Several Testable Hypotheses," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(11), pages 1682-1721, November.
    6. Silva, Thiago Christiano & de Souza, Sergio Rubens Stancato & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2016. "Network structure analysis of the Brazilian interbank market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 130-152.
    7. Alicia Garcia Herrero & Jianwei Xu, 2017. "China's Belt and Road Initiative: Can Europe Expect Trade Gains?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(6), pages 84-99, November.
    8. Hao Xiao & Bo Meng & Jiabai Ye & Shantong Li, 2020. "Are global value chains truly global?," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 540-564, October.
    9. Timothy M Peterson, 2020. "Reconsidering economic leverage and vulnerability: Trade ties, sanction threats, and the success of economic coercion," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(4), pages 409-429, July.
    10. Shaowei Chen & Qiang (Patrick) Qiang, 2020. "The Trade Network Structure of the “One Belt and One Road” and Its Environmental Effects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-21, April.
    11. Bo Wang & Yue Pu & Shunli Li & Lin Xu, 2021. "The influence of regional preferential trade agreements on international manufacturing trade in value-added: Based on the complex network method," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(2), pages 1-24, February.
    12. Quan He & Xishen Cao, 2019. "Pattern and Influencing Factors of Foreign Direct Investment Networks between Countries along the “Belt and Road” Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-23, August.
    13. Luca De Benedictis & Lucia Tajoli, 2011. "The World Trade Network," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(8), pages 1417-1454, August.
    14. Zhong, Weiqiong & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Sun, Xiaoqi, 2014. "The evolution of communities in the international oil trade network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 413(C), pages 42-52.
    15. Aichele, Rahel & Heiland, Inga, 2018. "Where is the value added? Trade liberalization and production networks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 130-144.
    16. Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei & Kunfu Zhu, 2013. "Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sector Levels," NBER Working Papers 19677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Aller, Carlos & Ductor, Lorenzo & Herrerias, M.J., 2015. "The world trade network and the environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 55-68.
    18. Martin Srholec, 2007. "High-Tech Exports from Developing Countries: A Symptom of Technology Spurts or Statistical Illusion?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(2), pages 227-255, July.
    19. Chen, B. & Li, J.S. & Wu, X.F. & Han, M.Y. & Zeng, L. & Li, Z. & Chen, G.Q., 2018. "Global energy flows embodied in international trade: A combination of environmentally extended input–output analysis and complex network analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 98-107.
    20. Jadbabaie, Ali & Kakhbod, Ali, 2019. "Optimal contracting in networks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1094-1153.
    21. Bart Los & Marcel P. Timmer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "How Global Are Global Value Chains? A New Approach To Measure International Fragmentation," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 66-92, January.
    22. Alexandre Vidmer & An Zeng & Mat'uv{s} Medo & Yi-Cheng Zhang, 2015. "Prediction in complex systems: the case of the international trade network," Papers 1511.05404, arXiv.org.
    23. Vidmer, Alexandre & Zeng, An & Medo, Matúš & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 2015. "Prediction in complex systems: The case of the international trade network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 436(C), pages 188-199.
    24. Garlaschelli, Diego & Loffredo, Maria I., 2005. "Structure and evolution of the world trade network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 138-144.
    25. Ge, Ying & Dollar, David & Yu, Xinding, 2020. "Institutions and participation in global value chains: Evidence from belt and road initiative," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    26. Zhen Zhu & Federica Cerina & Alessandro Chessa & Guido Caldarelli & Massimo Riccaboni, 2014. "The rise of China in the international trade network: a community core detection approach," Working Papers 4/2014, IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised Apr 2014.
    27. Xiu-Mei Fu & Han-Xue Chen & Zhen-Kai Xue, 2018. "Construction of the Belt and Road Trade Cooperation Network from the Multi-Distances Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-16, May.
    28. D. Garlaschelli & M. I. Loffredo, 2005. "Structure and Evolution of the World Trade Network," Papers physics/0502066, arXiv.org, revised May 2005.
    29. Zijie Fan & Yabin Zhang & Chun Liao, 2019. "Global or Regional Value Chains? Evidence from China," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 42(5-6), pages 459-494, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Federica Cerina & Zhen Zhu & Alessandro Chessa & Massimo Riccaboni, 2015. "World Input-Output Network," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-21, July.
    2. Chen, Guang & Kong, Rui & Wang, Yixin, 2020. "Research on the evolution of lithium trade communities based on the complex network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    3. João Amador & Sónia Cabral, 2017. "Networks of Value-added Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7), pages 1291-1313, July.
    4. João Amador & Sónia Cabral & Rossana Mastrandrea & Franco Ruzzenenti, 2018. "Who’s Who in Global Value Chains? A Weighted Network Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(5), pages 1039-1059, November.
    5. Zhang, Shuhong & Wang, Lin & Liu, Zhixin & Wang, Xiaofan, 2016. "Evolution of international trade and investment networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 752-763.
    6. Merza, Ádám & London, András & Kiss, István Márton & Pelle, Anita & Dombi, József & Németh, Tamás, 2016. "A világkereskedelem hálózatelméleti vizsgálatának lehetőségeiről [The scope for analysis of world trade through network theory]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 79-98.
    7. Qiaowen Zhang & Benjamin Batinge, 2021. "A social network analysis of the structure and evolution of intra‐African trade," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(1), pages 204-217, March.
    8. Rodolfo Metulini & Massimo Riccaboni & Paolo Sgrignoli & Zhen Zhu, 2017. "The Indirect Effects of FDI on Trade: A Network Perspective," Working Papers 04/2017, IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised Mar 2017.
    9. Zhong, Weiqiong & An, Haizhong & Fang, Wei & Gao, Xiangyun & Dong, Di, 2016. "Features and evolution of international fossil fuel trade network based on value of emergy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 868-877.
    10. Paolo Bartesaghi & Gian Paolo Clemente & Rosanna Grassi, 2022. "Community structure in the World Trade Network based on communicability distances," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(2), pages 405-441, April.
    11. Luca Salvatici & Silvia Nenci, 2017. "New features, forgotten costs and counterfactual gains of the international trading system," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 44(4), pages 592-633.
    12. Marco Dueñas & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2013. "Modeling the International-Trade Network: a gravity approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(1), pages 155-178, April.
    13. Bartesaghi, Paolo & Clemente, Gian Paolo & Grassi, Rosanna & Luu, Duc Thi, 2022. "The multilayer architecture of the global input-output network and its properties," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 304-341.
    14. Arjan Lejour & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa & Paul Veenendaal, 2017. "Identifying hubs and spokes in global supply chains using redirected trade in value added," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 66-81, January.
    15. Rita María del Río-Chanona & Jelena Grujić & Henrik Jeldtoft Jensen, 2017. "Trends of the World Input and Output Network of Global Trade," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, January.
    16. Liu, Litao & Cao, Zhi & Liu, Xiaojie & Shi, Lei & Cheng, Shengkui & Liu, Gang, 2020. "Oil security revisited: An assessment based on complex network analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    17. Giorgio Fagiolo & Tiziano Squartini & Diego Garlaschelli, 2013. "Null models of economic networks: the case of the world trade web," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(1), pages 75-107, April.
    18. Marco Dueñas & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2014. "Global Trade Imbalances: A Network Approach," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(03n04), pages 1-29.
    19. Xibo Wang & Jianping Ge & Wendong Wei & Hanshi Li & Chen Wu & Ge Zhu, 2016. "Spatial Dynamics of the Communities and the Role of Major Countries in the International Rare Earths Trade: A Complex Network Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(5), pages 1-22, May.
    20. Assaf Almog & Rhys Bird & Diego Garlaschelli, 2015. "Enhanced Gravity Model of trade: reconciling macroeconomic and network models," Papers 1506.00348, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2019.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:46:y:2023:i:7:p:2134-2156. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0378-5920 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.